1. Demographic Outlook for the European Union
Why it matters, what drives it and what it is
9 October 2018

2. Why does the EU’s demography and how it’s changing matter?
It sets the context for range of issues e.g.
the economy
the labour market
migration flows
health and long-term care
pensions
the environment
intergenerational fairness
election results
etc...
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24/02/2019

3. What drives demography?
Driven by 3 main things and how these are changing over time:
Numbers of people being born
People ageing and dying
People moving
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24/02/2019

4. What has been happening in the EU to these 3 drivers?
We have been having fewer children than in the past
We are living longer on average than in the past
Movement of people internally (crudely: East to West, South to North) and externally from 3rd countries (legal migration, irregular migration inc. refugees)
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24/02/2019

5. First driver: people having fewer children Total fertility rate (births per woman)
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24/02/2019

6. Number of live births lower despite a bigger EU population
During the period 1961–2016 the highest annual total of live births in the EU-28 was recorded in 1964, at 7.8 million.
By contrast, in 2016 there were just 5.1 million live births despite the EU-28 population having grown in the meantime by around one quarter.
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24/02/2019

7. Total fertility rates in EU-28 Member States in 2015
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24/02/2019

8. Second driver: Living longer Average female and male life expectancy at birth.
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24/02/2019

9. Average female and male life expectancy at age 60 (years)
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24/02/2019

10. Third driver: movement.
Free movement:
On 1 January 2016, 19.3 million people (or about 3.8% of the total EU population of million) were born in a different EU Member State to that in which they were resident.
Migration:
35.1 million people (or about 6.9% of the EU population) born outside the EU-28 were living in an EU Member State.
This total of 54.4 million people residing outside their country of birth accounted for 10.7 % of the total EU population of million people on 1 January 2016. .
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24/02/2019

11. Foreign population (other EU Member State nationals and non-EU nationals) residing in each Member State in 2016 .
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24/02/2019

12. EU population was growing, world grew faster
EU population was growing, world grew faster. EU-28 and world population (1960=100)
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24/02/2019

13. Crude rate of total population change in NUTS 3 regions 2015.
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24/02/2019

14. Some characteristics of areas losing population
To generalise:
Areas which lose population tend to be rural, already sparsely populated and remote. Declining industrial areas and various peripheral towns are also affected by depopulation trends.
Nonetheless rural regions which are close to dynamic urban centres, areas within commuting distance or which enjoy good transport connections with them can experience good population development.
People tend to move wherever there are jobs, career opportunities and favourable economic prospects. For instance, within Europe, movements of young educated professionals from Southern Europe to North Western Europe have been recorded since the beginning of the economic crisis.
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24/02/2019

15. Ageing EU: Population pyramids EU-28, 2001 and 2016 (numbers of women and men by age tranches)
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24/02/2019

16. Ageing EU: Population pyramids, EU-28, 2020 and 2080 (numbers of women and men by age tranches)
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24/02/2019

17. All EU Member States Ageing: Median age of the population (years) in EU 28 Member States in 1970 and 2016
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24/02/2019

18. Conclusions
The EU population is now growing only slowly and is expected to stagnate or even decline in the coming years and will hence be an ever smaller proportion of the growing world population
The EU population has also been ageing and this is expected to continue
This outlook is essentially set in the shorter term at least, meaning the focus must be on smoothing and adapting to these changing demographics.
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24/02/2019

19. Some useful links to more information
Demographic outlook for the European Union, In-Depth Analysis, ERPS, December Available in EN, FR and DE. Has links and references to a host of further sources. Full link address here:
The silver economy: Opportunities from ageing, Briefing, EPRS, July Available in En, FR and DE. Full link address here: .
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24/02/2019