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Leadership 0510 Leadership in Uncertain Times Peter Dickens, MTS Director: Tyndale Centre for Leadership pdickens@tyndale.ca.

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Presentation on theme: "Leadership 0510 Leadership in Uncertain Times Peter Dickens, MTS Director: Tyndale Centre for Leadership pdickens@tyndale.ca."— Presentation transcript:

1 Leadership Leadership in Uncertain Times Peter Dickens, MTS Director: Tyndale Centre for Leadership

2 Heifetz on Leadership Clarity of the Problem Clear Unclear Type I
Technical Work Clear and Available Clarity of the Solution Unclear and Unavailable

3 Management and Leadership
Managers…… Plan and budget Organize and staff Provide controls and solve problems Leaders…… Set direction Align people with the vision Motivate and and inspire Kotter, J. (2001) What Leaders Really Do. HBR On Point

4 Heifetz on Leadership Clarity of the Problem Clear Unclear Type I
Technical Work Type IV Wishful Thinking Dogma Clear and Available Clarity of the Solution Type II Technical/ Adaptive Work Type III Highly Adaptive Work Unclear and Unavailable

5 Reflections on certainty
Many of us develop partial understandings that we see as complete. The more certain we feel of them, the more they limit our freedom to think. We may have spent years building up these certainties, and beneath the fear of letting go of them is the fear of having nothing underneath. Peter Senge et al. The Dance of Change

6 Residual Uncertainty If you want to develop better strategic choices under conditions of uncertainty, you have to understand the uncertainty you face Certainty is not binary Residual uncertainty: What’s left after the best possible analysis to separate the known from the unknowable Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

7 Levels 1 Uncertainty Relatively clear view of the future
One or two obvious options Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

8 Leadership Strategies
Traditional SWOT Benchmarking Competency-based Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

9 Summary of “Industrial” Leadership
Framed by level 1 uncertainty These industrial age leadership theories have been: management-oriented Focused on the leader goal-achievement-dominated male-oriented utilitarian and materialistic in ethical perspective Rationalistic Philip Rost, Leadership for the 21st Century

10 Level 2 Uncertainty Relatively clear view of the future
Alternate futures Mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive One will occur Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

11 Level 2 Leadership Strategies
Traditional Qualitative decision analysis Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

12 Leadership as Process Leadership is process whereby an individual influences a group of individuals to achieve a common goal. Peter Northouse. Leadership

13 Level 3 Uncertainty Relatively clear view of the future
Alternate futures Range of futures Not mutually exclusive Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

14 Level 3 Leadership Strategies
Traditional Qualitative decision analysis Decision tree/cost-benefit analysis Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

15 Level 3 Strategy Diversification Insurance
A decision on where you will place your bets

16 Level 4 Uncertainty Relatively clear view of the future
Alternate futures Range of futures True ambiguity The future is unknown and unknowable Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

17 Peter Vaill: Permanent White Water
Conditions are full of surprises Complex systems tend to produce novel problems Conditions feature events that are “messy” and Events are often very costly

18 Emerging Norms re: Uncertainty
Constant change Collaborative focus Possibility – orientation Complex systems Self-organizing agents

19 Self-organizing Systems
Innumerable variables determine outcomes Small changes can change everything The whole emerges out from the parts Direction is determined by emergence and the participation of many people Individual or systems behavior is unknowable, unpredictable, and uncontrollable

20 Leadership Strategies
Traditional Qualitative decision analysis Decision tree/cost benefit analysis Work backwards Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

21 Working Backwards? Start with a strategy
Is it aligned with our mission and values? What do we have to believe about the future to support a defined strategy? Do we believe that is likely? Are we willing to bet on it?

22 Emerging Leadership Theory
Leadership is not a position. To my knowledge, a promotion never made anyone a leader. Leadership is a fiduciary calling. Max DePree. Leadership is an Art.

23 Focus on Intent Leadership is an influence relationship among leaders and followers who intend real changes that reflect their mutual purposes. Philip Rost, Leadership for the 21st Century

24 Transformative Leadership
Transformative leadership occurs when one or more people engage with others in such a way that leaders and followers raise one another to higher levels of motivations and morality. Burns. Transformative Leadership

25 Leadership as Service Leadership begins with the natural feeling that one wants to serve, to serve first .... The best test is: Do those served grow as persons; do they, while being served, become healthier, wiser, freer, more autonomous, or more likely to become servants themselves? Bob Greenleaf. Servant Leadership.

26 Leadership and Action Leadership means initiating action towards shared values and purpose. Dick Couto

27 Leadership in Self-Organizing Systems
Define the boundaries Invite diversity Create transforming exchanges Serve the system

28 Reflection What does this mean for your area of ministry?
What would you have to embrace? What would you have to let go of?


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