1. Leadership Leadership in Uncertain Times Peter Dickens, MTS Director: Tyndale Centre for Leadership

2. Heifetz on Leadership Clarity of the Problem Clear Unclear Type I
Technical Work
Clear and Available
Clarity of the Solution
Unclear and Unavailable

3. Management and Leadership
Managers……
Plan and budget
Organize and staff
Provide controls and solve problems
Leaders……
Set direction
Align people with the vision
Motivate and and inspire
Kotter, J. (2001) What Leaders Really Do. HBR On Point

4. Heifetz on Leadership Clarity of the Problem Clear Unclear Type I
Technical Work
Type IV
Wishful Thinking Dogma
Clear and Available
Clarity of the Solution
Type II
Technical/ Adaptive Work
Type III
Highly Adaptive Work
Unclear and Unavailable

5. Reflections on certainty
Many of us develop partial understandings that we see as complete. The more certain we feel of them, the more they limit our freedom to think. We may have spent years building up these certainties, and beneath the fear of letting go of them is the fear of having nothing underneath.
Peter Senge et al. The Dance of Change

6. Residual Uncertainty
If you want to develop better strategic choices under conditions of uncertainty, you have to understand the uncertainty you face
Certainty is not binary
Residual uncertainty: What’s left after the best possible analysis to separate the known from the unknowable
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

7. Levels 1 Uncertainty Relatively clear view of the future
One or two obvious options
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

8. Leadership Strategies
Traditional
SWOT
Benchmarking
Competency-based
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

9. Summary of “Industrial” Leadership
Framed by level 1 uncertainty
These industrial age leadership theories have been:
management-oriented
Focused on the leader
goal-achievement-dominated
male-oriented
utilitarian and materialistic in ethical perspective
Rationalistic
Philip Rost, Leadership for the 21st Century

10. Level 2 Uncertainty Relatively clear view of the future
Alternate futures
Mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive
One will occur
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

11. Level 2 Leadership Strategies
Traditional
Qualitative decision analysis
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

12. Leadership as Process
Leadership is process whereby an individual influences a group of individuals to achieve a common goal.
Peter Northouse. Leadership

13. Level 3 Uncertainty Relatively clear view of the future
Alternate futures
Range of futures
Not mutually exclusive
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

14. Level 3 Leadership Strategies
Traditional
Qualitative decision analysis
Decision tree/cost-benefit analysis
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

15. Level 3 Strategy Diversification Insurance
A decision on where you will place your bets

16. Level 4 Uncertainty Relatively clear view of the future
Alternate futures
Range of futures
True ambiguity
The future is unknown and unknowable
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

17. Peter Vaill: Permanent White Water
Conditions are full of surprises
Complex systems tend to produce novel problems
Conditions feature events that are “messy” and
Events are often very costly

18. Emerging Norms re: Uncertainty
Constant change
Collaborative focus
Possibility – orientation
Complex systems
Self-organizing agents

19. Self-organizing Systems
Innumerable variables determine outcomes
Small changes can change everything
The whole emerges out from the parts
Direction is determined by emergence and the participation of many people
Individual or systems behavior is unknowable, unpredictable, and uncontrollable

20. Leadership Strategies
Traditional
Qualitative decision analysis
Decision tree/cost benefit analysis
Work backwards
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

21. Working Backwards? Start with a strategy
Is it aligned with our mission and values?
What do we have to believe about the future to support a defined strategy?
Do we believe that is likely?
Are we willing to bet on it?

22. Emerging Leadership Theory
Leadership is not a position. To my knowledge, a promotion never made anyone a leader. Leadership is a fiduciary calling.
Max DePree. Leadership is an Art.

23. Focus on Intent
Leadership is an influence relationship among leaders and followers who intend real changes that reflect their mutual purposes.
Philip Rost, Leadership for the 21st Century

24. Transformative Leadership
Transformative leadership occurs when one or more people engage with others in such a way that leaders and followers raise one another to higher levels of motivations and morality.
Burns. Transformative Leadership

25. Leadership as Service
Leadership begins with the natural feeling that one wants to serve, to serve first .... The best test is: Do those served grow as persons; do they, while being served, become healthier, wiser, freer, more autonomous, or more likely to become servants themselves?
Bob Greenleaf. Servant Leadership.

26. Leadership and Action
Leadership means initiating action towards shared values and purpose.
Dick Couto

27. Leadership in Self-Organizing Systems
Define the boundaries
Invite diversity
Create transforming exchanges
Serve the system

28. Reflection What does this mean for your area of ministry?
What would you have to embrace?
What would you have to let go of?