1. The Future of IR analysis
Guy Van Gyes
Industrial Relations and Social Dialogue Conference, Budapest, 16 April 2013

2. Questions to be tackled
What are the most significant changes in industrial relations practices, and which are likely to remain? 1
What are the main trends in industrial relations analysis and do we have the right tools and data for the purpose? 3
What are likely to be the main issues which industrial relations analysts and social partners will need to address in the coming years? 2

3. Question 1: CHANGES

4. Social dialogue more and more seen as a dinosaur by power elite

5. 1. Crisis context Less work = less choice = more insecurity
Definite breakthrough – European level of socio-economic governance
Beggar-the-neighbour policies
German wage dumping leadership
Dismantling (?) of Southern model of social dialogue
Flexibilisation policies are on the rise again (East & South), not flexicurity
Easing of dismissal procedures
Removing barriers for temporary contracts
Liberalisering working time regulation
More strict rules sickness leave

6. Employment relationship = inherently contradictions
ECONOMIC EXCHANGE
POWER RELATIONSHIP
SD = democratisation by institutionalisation (values, rules, norms
IR as policy field always be there in a European market economy
The question is how much and what kind of social dialogue about it?

7. Input from science-based analysis
Developed SD is a key societal instrument against:
EU and national politics = rising democratic deficit
Rising inequality (cf. downward wage trend)
Imbalances are growing between EU countries = of social dialogue; gap between strong and weak is increasing
Complementarity perspective: SD can not play its role alone, is part of complementary policies, institutions in other domains =>
Institutions against financialisation economy; long-term perspective in entrepeneurship

8. Input from science-based analysis
European economy is not driven by cost-competitiveness, but by income-led, wage-led growth
Income of middle classes is key in the world economy
Demand for unions is growing (gap between demand – not delivering = decreasing membership)
Micro-macro perspective is different:
Average wage is increasing, because of composition effects (low-wage jobs cut)
Downward wage rigidity of individual wages is high in Belgium; macro-level wage flexibility comparable with more liberal countries like UK

9. Question 2: Challenges

10. Is not a certain policy theory reigning Europe the dinosaur?
Solidarity perspective – not everything for sale at every price – social dialogue as instrument for this high-road strategy

11. Sustainability perspective
Prospective studies (not nostaligic looking back)
What is in it for employers’ side: security perspective; macro-perspective
Focus on workplace social dialogue
Role employee representation in workplace innovation
Trust factor in change; Strategic involvement:
EU wage coordination supporting ‘sustainaible’ growth
Macro-economic role a minimum Eurozone wage policy that looks to inflation & productivity (function of automatic stabilizers like minimum wage & automatic wage indexation implemented at the right level)
Corporate governance (cf. complementarities)
Assessment European Company Statute
Monitoring the alternatives
Individual juridisation
Social movement outside the social dialogue
‘Bad’ power practices (ignoring fundamental rights)

12. Question 3: TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

13. 3.Comparative tools for analysis
Keeping and strengthening linked employer-employee surveys
Integration of EU agencies surveys to something stronger & better
Harmonisation of data on collectively agreed wages
I&C rights
What kind of financial and economic rights reps have and how are they used
Not looking to structures, but practices
Sociology of law

14. Innovation – Evidence-based – Comparative data

15. Thank you