1. Critical Thinking
Module 2

2. Psychology is just Common sense, Right?
“Beneath the surface there is much intelligence, and above the surface there is much self-delusion.” Myers (2002)
Psychological studies have found that people do have good intuitions; but people are also OFTEN mistaken in their own common senses.

3. Hindsight Bias: a documented psychological phenomenon in which people exaggerate the predictability of an event after it has already happened. Also referred to as “I knew that was going to happen” effect.

4. People tend to be more confident then correct when making predictions.
Overconfidence
People tend to be more confident then correct when making predictions.
Shakespeare (As You Like It) “The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool.”
Proverbs 12:15 “The way of a fool seems right to him, but a wise man listens to advice.”
Charles Darwin “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge”
Bertrand Russell “One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision”

5. Forbes article - FYI

6. Dunning & Kruger (1999) asked undergraduate students just as they walked out of an exam to rate their performance for the class just completed. In particular they were asked how well they had mastered the course material, and what they predicted their raw score to be for the test just taken.
Poorer students grossly overestimated their own performance, while top students somewhat underestimated theirs.

7. Poor performers tended to overestimate their performance by roughly 30%; a general pattern that has been replicated many times over since for many skills and subject areas.

8. We tend to see patterns in random events!
Video
We tend to see patterns in random events!
1976 Viking 1 photograph of the Face on Mars.
"huge rock formation ... which resembles a human head ... formed by shadows giving the illusion of eyes, nose and mouth." The authors reasoned it would be a good way to engage the public and attract attention to Mars.
Some people think the Face is bona fide evidence of life on Mars -- evidence that NASA would rather hide, say conspiracy theorists.
Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) image from 1998, and the latest MGS image from 2001.

9. Main Point
Hindsight Bias, Overconfidence and the tendency to see patterns in random events tend to make us believe that our ability to understand and predict phenomenon is much better than it really is.

10. What is Science?
Chp 1

11. The Scientific Attitude: Curious Skepticism
Scientists are seekers of Knowledge!
Need to examine the evidence before they are convinced!
Strive to overcome their own biases and preconception and follow the evidence.

12. We are thinking critically when we:
Rely on reason rather than emotion.
Follow evidence where it leads.
Are concerned more with finding the best explanation
Are aware of and control our own biases.