1. Drivers Influencing Weather-related NAS Metrics
Randy Bass
FAA – Aviation Weather Research Program
August 2, 2016

2. Weather Data Collection and Analysis Forecast Communication
The Weather Support “Process”
Feedback
Weather Data Collection and Analysis
Weather Forecast
Forecast Translation
Forecast Communication
Forecast Reception
Operational Decision

3. Weather Data Collection and Analysis
Some Considerations
Weather Data Collection and Analysis
Weather Forecast
Forecast
Translation
Communication
Reception
Operational
Decision
Lack of observations
Human factors
Interpretation
Training
Detection
Timeliness
Experience
Accuracy
Uncertainty
Ops tempo
Timeliness of data
Latency
Different models
Temporal scales
Human factors
Single Authoritative Source
Latency of information
Different products
Spatial scales
Machine 2 human
Human factors
Machine 2 machine
Tactical versus strategic
Human 2 machine
Human 2 human

4. Weather Metrics Critical Success Index (CSI) Brier Skill Score
Probability of Detection (POD)
False Alarm Rate (FAR)
Bias
Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves
Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)
Equitable Threat Score
Weather metrics rarely translate to operational effectiveness and measurements

5. Other Factors to Consider
CWSUs
Weather Centers
WFOs
NAMs
Controllers
Planners
Airlines
Pilots
Flight Services
Commercial Weather Providers
Aviation Associations
The actors:
Non-weather factors:
Flight operations
Airline consolidations and mergers
New/improved/legacy FAA systems
Regulations and guidance