1. SY2016 Demographic Study Middleton SD Resident Student Projections and
Based on SY2016 Student Data

2. Work Accomplished by Davis Demographics for Middleton SD
Created customized data set for District
Incorporated area development projects/plans
Analyzed relevant area demographic data
Developed 10-year student forecast

3. Mapping the District’s Student Data
Each dot represents
a student’s location
The last 4 years of mapped student data were analyzed.
The last 4 years of mapped student data were analyzed.

4. Planning Units or Study Areas

5. Attendance Matrices Enrolled Students by School HEIGHTS ELEMENTARY
RANGE
STUDENTS
HEIGHTS ELEMENTARY
MILL CREEK ELEMENTARY
PURPLE SAGE ELEMENTARY
Resident Student by School Zone
K-5
603
515 63 25
566 22
534 10
366 14
342
SUB TOTAL ENROLLMENT
1535
551
607
377
Pre-Kindergarten 29
Out of District- K-5
159 50 51 58
TOTAL ENROLLMENT
1,723
601
658
464
Site Capacity
396
616
594
Site Capacity Percentage
151.8%
106.8%
78.1%
Open Enrollment 86
124
122
Open Enrollment Percentage
14.3%
18.8%
26.3%
Found on page 16 in report
Helps the District track its open enrollment distribution.

6. Davis Demographics Projection Methodology

7. Middleton Birth Counts to Reported K-class
Found on page 5 in report

8. Mobility Factors
ES Attendance Area G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9
G10
G11
G12
District Average
1.08
1.11
1.04
1.05
1.02
1.07
0.99
0.98
0.94
Heights Elementary
1.13
1.09
1.03
1.06
1.00
1.10
1.01
0.92
Mill Creek Elementary
Purple Sage Elementary
0.97
0.95
0.89
Green = net increase from one grade to another
Red = net decrease from one grade to another
Black = no change/straight pass through
DDP conducts historical student data comparisons for Study Areas where there are no new residential development over the past five years.
DDP used 4 years of mapped student data (SY ) and conducts annual grade transition analysis using an average (instead of weighted method) – more conservative approach (3 years of change).
This factor helps to account for housing resales, foreclosures and apartment migration
Found in report, page 7

9. Student Yield Factors 4,304 Total SFD's 0.373 SFD K-6 1,578 Total K-6
0.107
SFD 7-8
469
Total 7-8
0.213
SFD 9-12
936
Total 9-12
0.693
SFD K-12
2,983
Total K-12
*Note: Housing Types We Studied
APT: Apartments
SFD: Single House Detached
SFA: Single House Attached (Townhouse)
MBH: Mobile Home
MFA: Multi-family Attached (Duplex)
*Student Generation Study was conducted by DDP. Data was based on the 2016 student data and county assessor data.
Found on page 8 in report

10. Active or Planned Residential Builds (10/2016 – 10/2024)
Active or Planned Residential Development
(as of 6/30/2017)
Active or Planned Residential Builds (10/2016 – 10/2024)

11. Active or Planned Residential Development
(as of 6/30/2017)

12. Active or Planned Residential Development
(as of 06/30/2017)
Found on page 14 in report

13. Projections for Each Study Area

14. Projections for Each Attendance Area
These are simply the summation of all of the individual Study Area projections that make up each attendance area.

15. District-wide 10-Year Projections – Residential Students
Impact from Mobility
Larger ES student counts will make up growth in MS and HS next 10 years
Impact from Development

16. District-wide 10-Year Projected Enrollment Total Enrollment of the District
= Peak or Highest Count

17. District Historic and Ten-Year Projected Resident Enrollment
Found on page 18 in report

18. Forecasted Change in Elementary Area 2017-2026
Found on page 21 in report

19. Historic and Ten-Year Projected Resident Enrollment Elementary School Students
SY2013-SY2026

20. Historic and Ten-Year Projected Resident Enrollment Middle School Students
SY2013-SY2026

21. Historic and Ten-Year Projected Resident Enrollment High School Students
SY2013-SY2026

22. Projected Resident Enrollment Elementary Student Population
between SY2016-SY2026

23. Projected Resident Enrollment Middle School Student Population between SY2016-SY2026

24. Projected Resident Enrollment High School Student Population
between SY2016- SY2026

25. Summary
District has been experiencing growth the last three years and should expect more growth for the next ten years.
New construction is expected to bring over 800 housing units the next eight years.
The district is experiencing the in-migration from other areas of the country.
The district is expected to experience an overall increase of almost 300 K-5 students or about 19.5% growth by the end of SY2026.
The middle school student population has fluctuated the last several years due to a bubble in enrollment starting in SY2013.
The high school is projected to have a net increase of about 480 resident students, or 43% growth, and reach site capacity by SY2023