1. BRIDGING THE CLIMATE GAP: FROM GLOBAL PROJECTIONS TO REGIONAL IMPACTS
Katharine Hayhoe and Don Wuebbles
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Texas Tech University
HEALTH: CONTINENTAL U.S.
AGRICULTURE: MIDWEST
Summer average daily maximum 8-hour changes in surface ozone
2050s
A1fi
higher B1
lower
Heat stress thresholds for livestock (oF):
70–72 dairy cows
72–75 beef cows
72–74 pigs
70–78 chickens
B1 lower A1fi higher
HIGH-RESOLUTION CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
ECOSYSTEMS: NORTHEAST
Tree species distribution
INFRASTRUCTURE: THE CITY OF CHICAGO
WATER: GREAT LAKES
Climate change impacts by city department
Historic
A1fi
higher B1
lower
The high-resolution projection at the center shows the number of weeks per year of days with Tmax > 100oF. Projection is for under the SRES A1fi (higher) scenario based on the average from GFDL CM2.1, PCM and HadCM3, downscaled to one-eighth degree resolution using a VIC-based statistical downscaling approach.
Health: used RCM coupled with CMAQ to calculate projected changes in surface- level ozone by 2050s relative to 2090s. PCM A1fi vs B1.
Ecosystems: Louis Iverson (USFS)’s forest model driven by GFDL/HadCM3/PCM A1fi/B1 simulations for relative to
Infrastructure: the work of Oliver Wyman, appearing in upcoming JGLR special issue
Agriculture: after Wolfe et al 2008 Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change – values for are shown. Historic map ( ) is blank – i.e., no heat stress at all.
Water: using Tom Croley’s GLERL lake level model, transient simulations driven by GFDL CM2.1, HadCM3 and PCM A1fi and B1 temperature & precipitation
Mean lake level for Lake Superior