1. Global Campaigning: Navigating complexity in multi-polar change processes
Gabrielle Watson, Oxfam America
American Evaluation Association Conference
November, 2010

2. What’s different about Campaigning?
Fast-pace
High uncertainty
Rapid shifts
Emergent opportunities & threats
High uncertainty & interdependence of factors
source:

3. The Zone of Complexity - Patton
Agreement
Chaos
Low
Socially
Complicated
Plan a
wedding
Complex
Raise a child
Campaign
Simple
Follow a recipe
Zimmerman et al, 1998, adapted from ideas of Ralph Stacey
Technically
complicated
Send a rocket to the moon
High
Low
Certainty

4. Oxfam’s Approach to Evaluation & Learning
Theory of change
Keyed to a monitoring framework
Internal learning systems
After-action reviews
Team check-ins & strategy sessions
Updated power analysis
Retrospective process tracing & patterning
External evaluations
Internal approach is adapting “Developmental Evaluation” to internal systems.
“In complex situations, cause and effect are unknown and unknowable until after the effect has emerged, at which point some retrospective process tracing and patterning may be possible.” - Michael Quinn Patton, Developmental Evaluation - Applying Complexity Concepts to Enhance Innovation and Use.
Methods for real-time learning and adjustment
ｷ After-action reviews
ｷ Quarterly/monthly/weeklyTeam check-ins
ｷ Strategy session look-backs
ｷ Data review (at all of these)
Methods for assessing contribution (and testing theory of change):
ｷ Process tracing: effects, do case studies to trace the causal pathways back to activities. Test the claims of contribution
ｷ Forensic evidence. Direct evidentiary proof of influence. Verbatim text in final bill language. Direct quote in newpaper. Spokespeople cited.
ｷ Preponderance of the evidence/ body of evidence: Building up multiple anecdotal evidence that is compelling. Quality evidence of influence. Substantial offers of proof.
ｷ General elimination theory. Fins a rational explanation and then systematically rule out all others. ｷ

5. Mutual accountabilities
Inter-dependencies
Mutual accountabilities

6. What’s different about Global Campaigning?
Multi-nodal change process, with national level campaigning in many countries simultaneously to generate movement across the system as a whole.
The overarching “theory of change” involves mobilizing public pressure to embolden rich and developing country governments to act.
3.2. Campaign proposition
Oxfam campaigns with others to ensure that the interests of poor women and men in developing countries are at the heart of global plans to tackle climate change.
2009 offers a crucial political opportunity to tackle climate change. A safe and fair Global Deal must be agreed by COP15 (Copenhagen, December 2009).
ｷ Safe: to stop catastrophic warming and avoid catastrophic climate change.
ｷ Fair: so that poorer countries can develop in a carbon-constrained world and protect their vulnerable people.
ｷ Fair: so that rich countries finally take responsibility for the crisis they have created.
We will do this by:
ｷ Working with others to ensure that the international community agrees a Global Deal that limits global warming to 2 degrees and that has justice and the needs of the world’s poorest women and men at its heart as well as massive resource transfers to support pro-poor adaptation in vulnerable economies.
ｷ Mobilizing public opinion – North and South – to put pressure on decision makers to make the necessary bold decision to underpin a fair and adequate Global Deal, and counter special interests that attempt to delay or weaken urgent action.
ｷ Advocacy and campaigning in vulnerable developing countries, including the influential emerging economies (BRICSAM), to ensure that poor people are lifted out of poverty as a result of excellent national adaptation policies supported by international finance.
ｷ Advocacy and campaigning for rich countries to radically cut their emissions – first, furthest and fastest - given their historic responsibility for causing climate change.
The foundation of all our campaigning on climate change will be to highlight the human cost of climate change on the world’s poorest people. Through this, we will feature the urgency for action and cost of inaction. This, we believe, will place justice and equity to the heart of the debate.

7. Global Campaign Theory of Change

8. USA Theory of Change Voices of voting public Members of Congress
New Legislation
Voices of Oxfam constituents
COP15
Voices of affected people
Administration officials
Voices of opinion leaders
US Negotiators
Developing Countries Speak out
Media & messaging
Research & publications

9. Peru Theory of Change

10. Ethiopia Theory of Change

11. The Challenge
Ahead
COP 17, 18,
COP 16

12. Inter-dependencies & Mutual Accountabilities at the Global level: evaluative challenges
Multiple nodes - managing strategic learning & accountabilities across the system - actors and geographies
Networked theories of change - clarifying causal links & interdependencies
Defining critical success from multiple perspectives - focus internal strategic reviews across national contexts