1. Grains Outlook for 2012 Insuring Iowa’s Agriculture Workshop
Ames, Iowa
Nov. 1, 2011
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted (mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
148.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,433
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
Imports 14 8 27 15
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,576
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,803
4,700
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,020
5,000
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,395
1,410
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,835
1,600
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,053
12,710
Ending Stocks
866
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.70
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,060
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
Imports 13 15
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,290
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,635
Seed & Residual
106
110
132
120
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,500
1,375
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,130
Ending Stocks
160
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
13.15
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Projected Soybean Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Corn vs. Wheat
Source: CME Group, 10/31/2011

7. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

8. Ethanol Margins
Source: CARD

9. Ethanol Blending Advantage

10. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

11. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

13. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

14. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

15. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

16. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

17. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

18. Iowa Crop Margins

19. Corn Insurance Prices
Projections for based on Oct. 31, 2011 futures

20. Soybean Insurance Prices
Projections for based on Oct. 31, 2011 futures

21. Principal Crop Area
Source: USDA-NASS

22. States with Room to Grow
Million acres
North Dakota
3.821
South Dakota
0.849
Arkansas
0.570
Missouri
0.517
Illinois
0.474
Georgia
0.385
Texas
0.283
Pennsylvania
0.238
Louisiana
0.195
Iowa
0.162

26. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation
Supply/demand concerns
Smaller than anticipated U.S. crops
Biofuel growth and energy demand
Corn still has the upper hand in the acreage competition
Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.70; Soy $13.15
Futures (as of 10/31/11): Corn $6.22; Soy $11.80
2012/13:
Futures (as of 10/31/11): Corn $5.88; Soy $11.87

27. ProAg Meetings in November
Provide agribusiness leaders with a concise valuation of current market conditions, expected trends in crop and livestock income potential and management implications.
Nov. 8: Sheldon & Cherokee
Nov. 9: Fort Dodge
Nov. 11: Altoona
Nov. 15: Mt. Pleasant & Williamsburg
Nov. 16: Carroll
Nov. 17: Waterloo & Mason City
Nov. 21: Greenfield

28. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: