1. Controlling time

2. Why to control?
Monitoring and analysis of project data should enable the project manager to
address problems at an early stage and
take advantages of opportunities;
prevent problems rather than responding to them;
communicate quickly and effectively: thus project members will work with the same and up-to-date information, and can quickly deal with problems.

3. 6 essential features of control systems
A plan must be made
This plan must be published
Once working, the activity being controlled must be measured
The measurements must then be compared with the plan
Any deviations must be reported to the appropriate person
A forecast of the results of any deviations must then be made, and corrective actions taken or a new plan must be made
Bar chart
PNTs = project network techniques
PNTs

4. Measurement of activities
The measurement should be appropriately precise
The measurement should be pertinent
The speed of collection of the information must be rapid compared with the time cycle of the system as a whole
Measurements need to be accurate or of consistent inaccuracy
The number of data processing points should be kept as small as possible
Pertinent = találó, helyes

5. The measurement should be appropriately precise
Precision is positively correlated with measurement costs
PNT indicates the necessity of precision
Critical activities
Non-critical activities

6. The measurement should be pertinent
What use the collected data can be made?

7. The speed of data collection…
Measurement must be taken frequently enough to allow useful action to be taken.
The longer the time for corrective actions to be taken, the lower frequency of measurement is acceptable.
Thus: the speed of data collection will increase toward the project’s ending.

8. Measurements need to be accurate or of consistent inaccuracy
Accuracy can be bought with increased cost.
Inaccurate but consistent measuring technique can be acceptable.
PNT: where is the low accuracy tolerable.
Accuracy and precision is NOT the same: Accuracy = degree of closeness to the true value (validity) Precision = degree to which repeated measurements leads to the same results (reliability).

10. The number of data processing points should be kept as small as possible
Too much processing points would lead to:
delay in information use
distortions in the information

11. 3 useful methods (the simplest - while appropriate - is the best)
The bar (Gantt) chart or the network itself
Re-analysis
Negative float

12. Gantt chart as a time control method (best for smaller projects)6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.
time
Activities
today

13. Example
Market research (survey) project. Estimation of activity durations:
Creating the SOW (framework for the research). = 7 days
Collecting secondary information:
models = 15 days
empirics = 15 days
Planning the research = 6 days
Formulating the questionnaire = 14 days
Collecting data in 3 destinations form people = 10 days each
Entering data = 2 days per one subsample
Analysing data = 6 days
Writing up the research report = 7 days
Presenting the results = 1 day

14. Example After 30 days: SOW is made in 7 days
Secondary research on models was finished in 14 days
Secondary research on empirics was finished in 18 days
Half of the research plan is written
No other activity is started

15. Re-analysis with PNT (or with Gantt chart)
In large and/or complex projects.
Taking the original network and inserting into the actual times instead of the expected durations. Sometimes new „delay activites” need to be built in. OR
Re-drawing the network leaving out all those activities that are complete and re-analyse the others. (Just like planning a new project)

16. Example 2 (for networks)
Manufacturing project:
The firm have to purchase two types of raw materials (A & B; procurement is centralised thus it is a single activity), and produce two different product parts from these (P1 and P2). These can be done separately. P2 has to put through an obligatory test, P1 do not. After both P1 and P2 are ready, the firm will assemble them with an externally bought P3 part (this must be purchased after previous buying is closed) to get the final product. Project done.
Create the WBS and identify tasks.

17. Example 2 (sipmlified network diagram)
The duration times for the activities (with activity labels):
(a) Raw materials procurement: 7 days
(b) P1 production: 5 days
(c) P2 production: 2 days
(d) P2 test: 2 days
(e) P3 procurement: 4 days
(f) Assembly: 2 days
Network?
TPT? a 7 b 5 c 2 d f e 4
a-b-f = 14
a-c-d-f = 13
a-e-f = 13
= TPT

18. Example 2: problems arise
After the project started, it became obvious that the testing facility will not be able to start the testing process in time, only two days later (they have a priority job for another project).
The P3 procurement is expected to be 1 day longer, too.
Re-analyse the project with the network.
Identify the new TPT. b 5 a 7 c 2
delay 2 d 2 f 2 e 5
a-b-f = 14
a-c-(delay)-d-f = 15
a-e-f = 14
= TPT

19. Negative float If the network is too large and complex.
Fix the end date, insert the actual durations and re-analyse the network (backward analysis).
Late activities will appear with negative float. There must be corrective actions taken (priority is according to the order of the absolute value of the negative floats).

20. Example 2: calculate floats and negative floats7 b 5 c 2 d f e 4 1 a 7 b 5 c 2 d f e
delay -1
This will be discussed in a more sophisticated way on the following classes, after we learn more about the project network diagrams.

21. Reporting rules
Avoid recrimination (‘past is dead’). Take steps to avoid a recurrence of failure not to create a fuss.
Progress should be reported in the form:
not complete
How much time is required to complete the activity?
complete
PNT helps to identify problematic areas and distinguishes areas of authority but not remove any responsibility.

22. Forecasting with PNT
It enables predictions of resultant actions to be deduced from present or past actions.

23. Forecasting example with PNT
Planned total project time (PTPT) of 1000 days.
After 400 days (ATWP) the planned time for the work performed (PTWP) is 350 days.
What is the estimated time to complete (ETC) the project?
What is the estimated time slip for the whole project?
Calculate the schedule performance index (SPI).

24. Solution
Planned time to complete (PTC): PTPT – PTWP = = 650 days
From the past activities we can calculate how these days have to be recalculated if the performance is not changing: ATWP/PTWP = 400/350=8/7
Current estimated time to complete (ETC): 650*(8/7)=743
Current estimated TPT: =1143
Total current estimated time slip: =-143
Current schedule performance index (SPI): PTWP/ATWP=350/400=0.875=87.5%

25. Plotting the limits of performance level

26. Problem solving
There is a project with a planned Total Project Time (TPT) of 120 days. The project consist of three non-overlapping work packages with a duration of days each. After 20 days only 37.5% of the first work package is completed.
Calculate the following:
current schedule performance index (SPI)
total current estimated time slip
planned time to complete (PTC)
current estimated time to complete (ETC)
current estimated Total Project Time (TPT)

27. Reading
Textbook chapter 9

28. Thank you for listening

29. Seminar

30. Seminar problem 1 There is a project consisting of 4 tasks:
A (duration: 3 days) starts at the 1st day
B (1 day) starts at the 4th day
C (2 days) starts at the 5th day
D (2 days) starts at the 7th day
After 4 days the completition rates are: A (66.67%), B (100%), others (0%)
Identify/Calculate the following: PTPT, ATWP, PTWP, SPI, PTC, ETC, ETPT, expected time slip
Plot the original and the re-analyzed Gantt charts.

31. Solution Plot the Gantt (done in the seminar). PTPT = 8 days
ATWP = 4 days
PTWP = work units done expressed in days = 3 days
SPI = (work done)/(work scheduled) = ¾ = 75%
PTC = PTPT – PTWP = 5 days
ETC = PTC/SPI = 6.67 days
ETPT = PTPT/SPI = days
expected time slip = PTPT – ETPT = days

32. Seminar problem 2 There is a project consisting of 5 tasks:
A (duration: 2 days) starts at the 1st day
B (3 days) starts at the 3rd day (completing A is a prerequisite)
C (2 days) starts at the 6th day (completing B is a prerequisite)
D (1 day) starts at the 8th day (completing C is a prerequisite)
E (2 days) starts at the 9th day (completing D is a prerequisite)
After 5 days the completition rates are: A (100%), B (100%), C (50%), others (0%)
Identify/Calculate the following: PTPT, ATWP, PTWP, SPI, PTC, ETC, ETPT, expected time slip
Plot the original and the re-analyzed Gantt & PNT charts.

33. Solution Plot the charts (done in the seminar). PTPT = 10 days
ATWP = 5 days
PTWP = work units done expressed in days = 6 days
SPI = 6/5 = 120%
PTC = PTPT – PTWP = 4 days
ETC = PTC/SPI = 3.33 days
ETPT = PTPT/SPI = 8.33 days
expected time slip = PTPT – ETPT = days

34. Seminar problem 3 There is a project consisting of 6 tasks:
A (duration: 1 day) starts at the 1st day
B (2 days) starts at the 1st day
C (3 days) starts at the 3rd day (A&B are prerequisites)
D (3 days) starts at the 3rd day (A&B are prerequisites)
E (3 days) starts at the 6th day (C&D are prerequisites)
F (1 day) starts at the 9th day (E is a prerequisite)
After 5 days the completition rates are: A (100%), B (100%), C (33.33%), others (0%)
Plot: PNT, Gantt (before and after)
Identify/Calculate the following: PTPT, ATWP, PTWP, SPI, PTC, ETC, ETPT, expected time slip

35. Solution Plot the Gantt chart (solved in the class) PTPT = 9 days
ATWP = the number of calendar days spent on the project = 5 days
SPI = (work units completed)/(work units planned during the 5 days)= = PTWP/ATWP = 4/9 ≈ 44.44%
PTWP = how many calendar days should it have taken to complete the work units completed during the ATWP = = ATWP(SPI) = = (average planned duration of a work unit)(work units performed) = = (4/9)(5) = 20/9 ≈ 2.22 days of work with 100% schedule performance
PTC = PTPT – PTWP ≈ 6.78 days
ETC = PTC/SPI = days
ETPT = PTPT/SPI = ATWP + ETC = days
expected time slip = PTPT – ETPT = days

36. Seminar problem 4 (’treasure map’)
The project is the following: 1st a treasure map should be decoded (activity a, 2 weeks). After it is done, the location of the treasure is identified, thus we can hire the staff (activity b, 2 weeks), buy the equipment (c, 1 week) and arrange transportation (d, 1 week). These tasks can be performed independently of each other. The next step is travelling to the site (e, 1 week). Last part is the excavation (f, 4 weeks).
Plot the PNT diagram. Identify the paths, the critical path(s), the critical activities, the TPT, and the activity floats.
Plot the Gantt chart.
After 3 weeks, a is ready, c is ready, but nothing else.
Identify/calculate PTPT, ATWP, SPI, PTWP, PTC, ETC, ETPT, expected time slip.
Re-draw the Gantt and the PNT charts.

37. Solution Plots are done in the seminar. PTPT = 9 weeks ATWP = 3 weeks
SPI = 3/5 = 60%
PTWP = 1.8 weeks (= 12.8 days)
PTC = PTPT – PTWP = 7.2 weeks
ETC = PTC/SPI = 12 weeks
ETPT = PTPT/SPI = 15 weeks
expected time slip = PTPT – ETPT = -6 weeks