1. 2013 Crop Market Outlook Grain Marketing and Risk Management Seminar
Eagle Grove, Iowa
Feb. 26, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
Imports 14 8 28 29
100
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,516
11,869
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,795
4,548
4,450
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,500
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,426
1,387
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,834
1,543
900
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,237
Ending Stocks
632
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.22
7.20
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.6
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,015
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
169
Imports 13 15 14 16 20
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,204
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,615
Seed & Residual
106
110
130 91
120
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,362
1,345
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,080
Ending Stocks
125
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.30
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: Bushels/acre

5. Soybean Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: Bushels/acre

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

9. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

10. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

11. Corn Grind for Ethanol

12. Corn Prices vs. Costs

13. Soy Prices vs. Costs

14. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011
Weather was great for planting in 2012 (just not for producing). To hold acreage we will need great planting weather again.
Top: Planted in 2012
Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

16. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Soil moisture issues
Biofuel and export strength
Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing
2012/13
USDA
2013/14
Futures
(2/25/13)
Corn
$7.20
$5.17
Soybeans
$14.30
$12.01
Risk management
Crop insurance
Price protection

17. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: