1. Grain Price Trends, Now and Future
Central Iowa Farm Business Association Annual Meeting
Ft. Dodge, Iowa
August 2, 2011
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted (mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
92.3
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
158.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
13,470
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
880
Imports 14 8 30 20
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,185
14,370
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,140
5,000
5,050
Ethanol
3,709
4,568
5,150
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,371
1,380
1,400
Exports
1,849
1,987
1,875
1,900
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,305
13,500
Ending Stocks
870
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.25
6.00 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
43.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,225
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
200
Imports 13 15
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,440
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,650
1,655
Seed & Residual
106
108
125
115
Exports
1,279
1,501
1,520
1,495
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,295
3,265
Ending Stocks
175
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.35
13.00 3 3

4. Corn Area
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soybean Area
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Crop Conditions
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Crop Conditions & Corn Yields

8. Crop Conditions & Soybean Yields

9. World Corn Production
Source: USDA 9 9

10. Corn – Argentina & Brazil
Source: USDA 10 10

11. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA 11 11

12. Soybeans – Argentina & Brazil
Source: USDA 12 12

13. Exchange Rates (Jan = 1)
Source: USDA, ERS

14. Export Pace vs. Last Year
Source: USDA, FAS

15. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA, FAS

16. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA, FAS

17. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

18. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

19. Soy Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

20. Soy Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

21. Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1) 21 21

22. Ethanol Margin
Source: CARD

23. Ethanol Blending Advantage

24. Corn Grind for Ethanol

25. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

26. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

27. Corn Prices vs. Costs

28. Soybean Prices vs. Costs

29. Input Costs
Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, July 29, 2011

30. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
Debt limit, US credit rating
US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation
Supply/demand concerns
Prevented planting, flooding, heat wave, nighttime temps?
Biofuel growth and energy demand
Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.25, Soy $11.35
2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.00, Soy $13.00
Futures (as of 8/1/2011): Corn $6.64, Soy $13.24

31. Price Projections
Source: USDA

32. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: