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Visualization of Key ingredients for forecasting winter storms
Kenneth R. Cook National Weather Service, Wichita, Kansas
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Ingredients Field Indication Coupled Forcing/PV TROWAL
Strong Moderate Weak None TROWAL Yes No Frontogenesis (Fn) Instability (Above Fn) Snow Growth Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Slightly Favorable Residence Time of Precip. Long (8 <) Moderate (4-8) Short (< 4)
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January 10th – Coupled Forcing
MB Fn MB Fn
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Ingredients Field Indication Coupled Forcing/PV TROWAL
Strong Moderate Weak None TROWAL Yes No Frontogenesis (Fn) Instability (Above Fn) Snow Growth Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Slightly Favorable Residence Time of Precip. Long (8 <) Moderate (4-8) Short (< 4)
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January 10th – Fn and Instability
MB MB
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Ingredients Field Indication Coupled Forcing/PV TROWAL
Strong Moderate Weak None TROWAL Yes No Frontogenesis (Fn) Instability (Above Fn) Snow Growth Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Slightly Favorable Residence Time of Precip. Long (8 <) Moderate (4-8) Short (< 4)
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TROWAL Air Stream/Inst Occl
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Ingredients Field Indication Coupled Forcing/PV TROWAL
Strong Moderate Weak None TROWAL Yes No Frontogenesis (Fn) Instability (Above Fn) Snow Growth Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Slightly Favorable Residence Time of Precip. Long (8 <) Moderate (4-8) Short (< 4)
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January 10th – Snow Growth
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January 10th - Snow Growth
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Ingredients Field Indication Coupled Forcing/PV TROWAL
Strong Moderate Weak None TROWAL Yes No Frontogenesis (Fn) Instability (Above Fn) Snow Growth Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Slightly Favorable Residence Time of Precip. Long (8 <) Moderate (4-8) Short (< 4)
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January 10th - So What Happened
Notice Residence Time of the Precipitation
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January 10th - Instability
What would you expect the precipitation echoes to look like?
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Cobb Data – Snow Amount/Ratio
Stn 12Z 9th 18Z 9th 00Z 10th 06z 10th MRN 8.1 6.0 5.8 4.4 CNU 6.4 4.1 FRE 6.5 8.9 4.5 6.8 NDA 7.5 5.5 7.9 NAM-Eta Forecast Snow Ratios Using the Cobb Technique were 17:1 to 20:1 in the heavy snow band!!!
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Result
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