1. RSA Insight Report: Supporting Slides
Glasgow Region
comprising East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire and Glasgow City
Evidence Base Team
Glasgow

2. Contents Explanation of Thermometer Chart 1. The Glasgow Region
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by Region 2015
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by Local Authority 2015
Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base (2016)
Proportions of Businesses by Size Band (2016)
Business Births and Deaths per ( ) and Business Survival Index ( )
Resident and Workplace Based Earnings 2016 (Median)
Glasgow’s local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC)
Deprivation Glasgow by SIMD (2016) Deciles1 1-10
Population projections change by age band, 2014 – 2039
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Region
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Local Authority
School Leaver Destinations 2009/10 and 2015/16

3. 2. Demand for Glasgow Total Employment Projections (jobs) (2000-2027)
Total Employment (jobs) Projections by Status and Gender
Glasgow Occupation Structure 2000 and 2017 (people 000s)
Total employment (people 000s) by occupation 2017 and 2027
Proportion of occupations at top middle and bottom of labour market 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (people 000s) Glasgow
Proportion of total requirement at top middle and bottom of labour market
Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector 2017 and 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs 000s) Glasgow
Total employment (jobs 000s) by key sector 2017 and 2027
Total Employment by qualification (000s) Glasgow 2017 and 2027
Total Requirement by qualification (people, 000s) Glasgow

4. Explanation of thermometer/bullet chart
Although most people are familiar with a grouped bar chart:...
... a thermometer (or bullet) chart shows both bars in one, enabling more space to be used, which is more practical when dealing with more cluttered charts, showing 2 digit SIC and SOC for example.
The figures are the ‘thermometer’ and the 2027 figures act as the ‘mercury’. This enables a comparison to be made as to whether there has been a rise or fall compared with the 2017 baseline. An example is given below:
2027 figures less than 2017
2016 figure
2017
2024 figure
2027 figures more than 2017
2027

5. 1. The Glasgow Region

6. Figure 2.1: Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by Region, 2015
Low GVA, High Productivity
High GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, Low Productivity
High GVA, Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

7. Figure 2.2: Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by Local Authority, 2015
Low GVA, High Productivity
High GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, Low Productivity
High GVA, Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

8. Table 2.1: Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base, (2016)
Glasgow Region
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
Glasgow City
Scotland
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 1% 2%
0.2%
10%
Production 5% 4% 6%
Construction
13%
11% 9%
Motor trades 3%
Wholesale
Retail 7% 8%
Transport & storage
Accommodation & food services
Information & communication
Financial & insurance
Property
Professional, scientific & technical
20%
24%
23%
19%
Business administration & support services
Public administration & defence 0%
Education
Health
Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services
Total
22,880
2,975
2,605
17,300
171,905
Source: UK Business Counts

9. Table 2.2: Proportions of businesses by size band, 2016
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
Glasgow City
Glasgow
Scotland
0-9
91%
84%
86%
88%
10-49 8%
13%
11%
10%
50-249 1% 2%
250+ 0%
Source: UK Business Counts

10. Figure 2.3 Business births and deaths per 10,000 population ( ) and Business survival index ( )
Recession
(2008-9)
Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-Year Population Estimates
Note: data for Business Survival Rates only available for in Evidence Base.

11. Table 2.3: Resident and workplace based earnings, 2016 (Median)
Area
Resident Earnings
Workplace Earnings
Difference between resident and workplace earnings
East Dunbartonshire
£512
£329
£182
East Renfrewshire
£538
£345
£193
Glasgow City
£425
£466
-£41
Scottish Average
£434
£432 £2
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. Figures based on weekly pay of all workers.

12. Table 2.4: Glasgow Region’s local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC1)
SOC 1-3
SOC 4-6
SOC 7-9
East Dunbartonshire
57%
26%
17%
East Renfrewshire
25%
18%
Glasgow
49%
Source: Origin Destination statistics by Local Authority, open access (WB07BUK_la), UK Data Service
Note: denominator = total trips out of the local authority
1 See SOC Codes for Glasgow here:

13. Figure 2.4: Deprivation in Glasgow Region by SIMD (2016), Deciles2 1-10
Source: Scottish Government, 2016
2 See SIMD interactive map here:

14. Table 2.5: Population projections, change by age band 2014 – 2039
0 -15
16-29
30-49
50-64
65-74
75+
Total
East Dunbartonshire 4%
-10%
-3%
-17%
14%
95% 6%
East Renfrewshire 9%
21%
89%
13%
Glasgow City
-12%
42%
54% 7%
Glasgow Region 5% 3% 0%
34%
66%
Scotland 1%
-8%
-2%
-6%
27%
85%
Source: National Records of Scotland.

15. Figure 2.5: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity, by Region
Low Unemployment, High Inactivity
High Unemployment, High Inactivity
High Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Low Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based), January to December, 2016
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

16. Figure 2.6: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity, by Local Authority
Low Unemployment, High Inactivity
High Unemployment, High Inactivity
Low Unemployment, Low Inactivity
High Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based), January to December, 2016
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean..

17. Table 2.6: School Leaver Destinations, 2009/10 and 2015/16
Glasgow Region
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
Glasgow City
Higher education (%)
2009/10
37%
52%
58%
27%
2015/16
42%
57%
61%
31%
Change 4% 6% 3%
Further education (%)
22%
17%
14%
25%
20%
13%
24%
-2%
-3%
-1%
Employment (%)
21%
19%
23% 2% 1%
Unemployment (%) * 8% 7% 9% 5%
11%
-6%
-4%
-7%
Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset
Unemployment Seeking and Unemployment Not Seeking.

18. 2. Demand for Skills in Glasgow Region

19. Figure 3.1: Total Employment Projections (jobs), 2000-2027)
Source: Oxford Economics

20. Figure 3.2: Total Employment (jobs) projections, 2000-2027 by status and gender  
Source: Oxford Economics

21. Figure 3.3: Glasgow Region Occupational Structure, 2000 and 2017 (people, 000s)
Source: Oxford Economics

22. Figure 3.4: Total employment (people, 000s) by occupation, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data labels for 2027 only

23. Table 3.1: Proportion of occupations at top, middle and bottom of labour market, 2027
Glasgow Region
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
Glasgow City
Higher Level jobs
48%
46%
47%
Middle level jobs
28%
25%
32%
Lower level jobs
24%
29%
21%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

24. Table 3.2: Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (people, 000s), Glasgow Region,
Occupation
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Managers, directors & senior officials
2.3
12.9
15.2
Professional occupations
4.6
57.4
62.0
Associate professional & technical occupations
3.5
25.5
29.0
Administrative & secretarial occupations
0.3
21.5
21.9
Skilled trades occupations
2.4
13.4
15.8
Caring, leisure & other service occupations
3.2
17.2
20.4
Sales & customer service occupations
25.6
28.0
Process, plant & machine operatives
0.9
7.5
8.3
Elementary occupations
4.1
36.6
40.7
Total
23.7
217.5
241.3
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data.

25. Table 3.3: Proportion of total requirement at top, middle and bottom of labour market, 2017-2027
Glasgow Region
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
Glasgow City
Higher level jobs
44%
42%
38%
45%
Middle level jobs
24%
22%
32%
Lower level jobs
35%
30%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

26. Figure 3.5: Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data labels for 2027 only

27. Table 3.4: Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s), Glasgow Region,
Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
-0.02
0.7
Mining and quarrying
-0.03
0.0
0.01
Manufacturing
-2.6
6.0
3.4
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning
-0.5
1.2
0.8
Water supply, sewerage, waste management
-0.3
4.4
4.1
Construction
3.9
9.4
13.4
Wholesale and retail trade
4.0
45.2
49.2
Transport and storage
15.0
15.8
Accommodation and food services
3.5
22.7
26.3
Information and communication
1.3
2.1
Financial and insurance activities
-0.4
0.9
0.5
Real estate activities
1.0
0.98
Professional, scientific and technical
6.5
7.0
Admin. and support services
11.7
48.2
59.9
Public admin. and defence
-3.0
12.5
9.5
Education
0.1
19.3
19.4
Human health and social work
27.3
31.4
Arts, entertainment and recreation
10.7
12.0
Other service activities
1.7
0.4
Total
33.1
225.3
258.4
Source: Oxford Economics

28. Figure 3.6: Total employment (jobs, 000s) by key sector, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data labels for 2027 only

29. Table 3.5 Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s), Glasgow Region,
Key Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Chemical sciences
-0.07
0.1
Creative industries
2.06
4.3
6.3
Construction
5.2
10.5
15.7
Energy
-0.2
1.9
1.8
Engineering
0.9
2.7
3.6
Food and drink
-0.4
2.2
Financial and business services
6.2
11.7
17.8
Health and social care
4.1
27.3
31.4
ICT/digital
1.1
0.7
Life sciences
0.3
Tourism
23.8
27.4
Total
22.7
85.3
108.0
Source: Oxford Economics

30. Figure 3.7: Total Employment by qualification (people, 000s), Glasgow Region, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data labels for 2027 only

31. Table 3.6: Total Requirement by qualification (people, 000s), Glasgow Region, 2017-2027
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
SCQF
3.5
12.8
16.3
SCQF
13.8
100.1
113.9
SCQF 6
0.7
31.4
32.1
SCQF 5
2.8
46.0
48.8
SCQF 1-4
0.1
10.3
10.4
No Qualifications
17.0
19.8
Total
23.7
217.5
241.3
Source: Oxford Economics.