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Anahita Dua, MD, MS, MBA, Gilbert R. Upchurch, MD, Jason T

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Presentation on theme: "Anahita Dua, MD, MS, MBA, Gilbert R. Upchurch, MD, Jason T"— Presentation transcript:

1 Predicted shortfall in open aneurysm experience for vascular surgery trainees 
Anahita Dua, MD, MS, MBA, Gilbert R. Upchurch, MD, Jason T. Lee, MD, John Eidt, MD, Sapan S. Desai, MD, PhD, MBA  Journal of Vascular Surgery  Volume 60, Issue 4, Pages (October 2014) DOI: /j.jvs Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

2 Fig Actual number of open abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repairs (OAR) at the national level (black dots) compared with the predicted number of cases based off a modified S-curve regression model (dotted line). The 95% confidence intervals are given (dashed gray lines). The solid black line at the top is a modified correlation tornado chart showing the correlation of determination. This ranges from 0.99 in 1998 to 0.86 in The value drops below 0.90 after The horizontal axis is years out to 2025, the vertical axis on the left is number of open AAA cases weighted to reflect population-level estimates using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS), and the vertical axis on the right is values for correlation of determination. Values after 2011 are forecasted estimates based off the regression model. Journal of Vascular Surgery  , DOI: ( /j.jvs ) Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

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