1. Torgeir Ericson, CICERO Norway 9-10 June 2011, Tampere
Climate Indicator with Stakeholder Assessments of Future Desired Emission Paths
Torgeir Ericson, CICERO Norway
9-10 June 2011, Tampere

2. Content Norwegian sustainable development indicators
3 reasons for new type of indicators
Suggested indicator

3. 18 Norwegian sustainable development indicators
International cooperation for sustainable development and combating poverty
1. Norwegian official development assistance, in NOK and as percentage of gross national income
2. Imports from least developed countries and from all developing countries
Climate, ozone and long-range air pollution
3. Norwegian emissions of greenhouse gases compared with the Kyoto Protocol target
4. Emissions of NOx, NH3, SO2 and NMVOCs
Biodiversity and cultural heritage
5. Bird population index – population trends for breeding bird species in terrestrial ecosystems
6. Proportion of inland water bodies classified as “clearly not at risk”
7. Proportion of coastal waters classified as “clearly not at risk”
8. Trend in standards of maintenance of protected buildings
Natural resources
9. Energy use per unit of GDP
10. Size of spawning stock of Northeast Arctic cod and Norwegian spring-spawning herring, compared with the precautionary reference points
Hazardous chemicals
11. Irreversible losses of biologically productive areas
12. Potential exposure to hazardous substances
Sustainable economic and social development
13. Net national income per capita by sources of income
14. Trends in income distribution
15. Generational accounts: Need to tighten public sector finances as a share of GDP
16. Population by highest level of educational attainment
17. Disability pensioners and long-term unemployed persons as a percentage of the population
18. Life expectancy at birth

4. Weaknesses of the indicators
No assessments on sustainable levels
No forward-looking
Difficult to understand
Little used

5. Three explanations for this
Indicators may be improved by participation, involvement and assessment on future desired development
Three explanations for this
Scientific data is only information, not knowledge
Postnormal science
We need projections and normative assessments

6. a) Scientific data is only information, not knowledge

7. Typical indicator
But, is the development
sustainable?

8. Typical indicator
The figure gives an impression that this is the sustainable level

9. Typical indicator
But, for all we know, ”sustainability” could be around here

10. Typical indicator
Or here….

11. Typical indicator
Or here….

12. Typical indicator

13. It would be possible to describe everything scientifically, but it would make no sense; it would be without meaning, as if you described a Beethoven symphony as a variation of wave pressure
Einstein
To create meaning we must have both the “objective” measurements and the “subjective” interpretations/assessments.
Without each other an indicator makes no sense and is without meaning.

14. Indicator with several perspectives on the sustainable level
”Sustainable” level: perspective 1
”Sustainable” level: perspective 2
”Sustainable” level: perspective 3
”Sustainable” level: perspective 4
”Sustainable” level: perspective 5
”Sustainable” level: perspective 6
Minner om vanlig høringsrunde
…In this case with much disagreements

15. Indicator with several perspectives on the sustainable level
”Sustainable” level: perspective 1
”Bærekraftig” nivå: perspektiv 4
”Bærekraftig” nivå: perspektiv 5
”Bærekraftig” nivå: perspektiv 2
”Sustainable” level: perspective 3
…In this case with much agreement

16. Indicator with several perspectives on the sustainable level
”Sustainable” level: perspective 1
”Sustainable” level: perspective 2
”Sustainable” level: perspective 3
”Sustainable” level: perspective 4
”Sustainable” level: perspective 5
”Sustainable” level: perspective 6
…In this case with much disagreements on the exact sustainable level, but still with agreements that the development is not
sustainable

17. Indicator with several perspectives on the sustainable level
”Sustainable” level: perspective 1
”Sustainable” level: perspective 2
”Sustainable” level: perspective 3
”Sustainable” level: perspective 4
”Sustainable” level: perspective 5
”Sustainable” level: perspective 6

18. b) Postnormal science When
'facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent’
Ravetz & Funtowicz
(e.g. climate, biodversity)
… decision making is difficult

19. Can we take this into account in indicators?
Involve people
Create a shared context/framework
Higher degree of understanding of challenges may emerge
A larger share may feel ownership to solutions,
Popper’s Open Society (1966): when experts cannot predict then a process of decision-making that is as open as possible to knowledge and ideas from all sectors of society is most effective
Suggestion: indicate plurality of legitimate perspectives on the issue at hand in the indicator

20. c) We need projections and normative assessments

21. Stiglitz report, 2009 (Stiglitz, Sen Fitoussi )
Message 1: Measuring sustainability differs from standard statistical practice in a fundamental way: to do it adequately, we need projections, not only observations.
Message 2: Measuring sustainability also entails prior responses to normative questions. In this respect too, it strongly differs from standard statistical activity

22. Construction of indicator

30. Conclusion
Existing sustainable development indicators tells little of whether the development is sustainable or not
Indicators with forward looking assessments may be informative and increase attention and discussions and involvement