1. The Effect of High Achieving Peers Leaving The Class - Evidence From Hungary
Mi van akkor, ha a legokosabb gyerekek elmennek az osztályból?
A kisgimnáziumi szelekció következményei
Fritz Schiltz, Deni Mazrekaj, Daniel Horn, and Kristof De Witte
Szirák
Budapest

2. Overview
What happens to „children left behind” when the highest-achieving are cherry-picked by elite schools?
We exploit a unique institutional setting, coupled with good data.
We contribute to the tracking literature by focusing on potential mechanisms that change staying-students’ outcomes.
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

3. Main results
Instrumenting the percentage of leaving peers suggests 1) moderately negative total effects
especially in math
and aspirations
2) but heterogeneous effects.
More negative
for girls, and
for the top quartile left behind
in Math, reading, behavior & aspirations
Positive for
the bottom quartile
in Reading, behavior & aspirations
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

4. Setup
Grade
Age 8 14
NABC 8 12 6 10
Data collected in Grade 6 and Grade 8
2008 (2010) – 2015 (2017)
Total of 635,713 students
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

5. Setup Spatial variance in 6-year-long elite tracks
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

6. Setup Spatial variance in 6-year-long elite tracks
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

7. Setup Spatial variance in 6-year-long elite tracks
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

8. Elite schools for ‚elite’ students
Stayers
Leavers
49%
52%
19%
48%
26%
52%
1,485
1,657
1,474
1,649
17,105m
7,314m
461,666
26,823
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

9. Identification strategy I (baseline)
Goal: Look at the performance of those who stayed!
Problem: % of leavers can be endogenous
better primary schools „produce” better students
more can leave
but less would like to leave
-> sign of bias is unclear
Exogenous variation: distance from nearest elite track!
median class distance in 6th grade
measured in meters covered by bus (Volan) from home to nearest elite track
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

10. Identification strategy I
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

11. Identification strategy I
Spatial immobility in Hungary is low!
90% does not move between grade 6 and grade 8
Only 0.5% of students moves to a region with elite schools
movers & non-movers equally likely to leave
Two out of three movers does not leave school
% leavers to elite schools
class median distance to nearest elite school (km)
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

12. Identification strategy I
Validity of distance as instrument
Elite schools 10km further away
1.5% less leavers (mean=6%)
Robust to alternative specifications
1. Exclusion
Distance is independent of test scores in grade 6
2. Exogeneity
Current spatial dispersion of elite tracks is independent of individual place of living (w/ free school choice)
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

13. Identification strategy II
Panel fixed effect models.
Utilize the fact that there is variation in the number /percentage of leavers by school through the years.
Problem: unbalanced panel (several schools have no leavers in several years).
This is just a robustness check!
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

14. Identification strategy II
% of observations
Number of leavers to elite schools per class
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

15. Identification strategy II
% of observations in classes where at least 1 student is
leaving to elite schools
% of leavers to elite schools per class
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

16. Results (IV) (when 10% leaves)
Mean Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Mathematics
OLS
-0.018***
-0.009***
-0.008***
-0.011***
(N=498,606)
(0.003)
First stage
-0.013***
-0.010***
-0.012***
-0.014***
-0.015***
(0.001)
(0.004)
2SLS
-0.057***
-0.107***
-0.076***
-0.045***
-0.010
(0.015)
(0.021)
(0.018)
(0.016)
Reading
-0.008**
-0.006**
(0.002)
-0.012
-0.014
-0.062***
-0.035**
-0.001
0.026**
(0.011)
(0.017)
(0.014)
(0.013)
Controls: Gender, books at home, mother education, score in grade 6, leave-out-means at class level. Regional and cohort FE. SEs clustered at class level.
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

17. Results (IV) – alternative outcomes
(when 10% leaves) 65 – 75 % observed
Mean Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
GPA
2SLS
0.004
-0.020**
0.019*
0.018
0.020*
(N=320,073)
(0.008)
(0.011)
(0.012)
Behavior
0.008
-0.017
0.003
0.030**
0.039***
(N=370,048)
(0.013)
Aspirations
-0.015***
-0.054***
-0.013
0.013**
(N=385,044)
(0.005)
(0.010)
(0.009)
(0.007)
(0.006)
Controls: Gender, books at home, mother education, score in grade 6, leave-out-means at class level. Regional and cohort FE. SEs clustered at class level.
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

18. Heterogeneous effects
Gender
Same effect by leavers’ gender
More negative effects for staying girls
Socio-economic background (~quartiles)
More negative effects for high SES
Positive effects for low SES:
Reading
Behavior
Aspirations
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

19. Identification strategy II (cohort variation)
Effect by ability and gender
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

20. Mechanism Competition
Q1 competed with left-students -> lack of incentives
2. Increased/depleted confidence
Q1 tried but failed
Q4 increased in relative ability
3. Teaching to the mean?
More time for Q4?
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

21. Conclusion Positive effects: Lowest ability students
Reading, behavior & aspirations
Negative effects:
Girls, high ability/high SES
Math, reading, behavior & aspirations
Policy relevance
This is effect of small changes in composition
Positive effect for leavers
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

22. Thank you for the attention
Daniel Horn
Szirák

23. Instrument robust to alternative specifications
First stage
% students in a class leaving to elite schools
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Median class
distance (10km)
-1.61***
(0.06)
-1.56***
-1.49***
-1.14***
(0.05)
-1.53***
Individual level X
Class level
Cohort FE
Region FE
F-statistic
752.75
755.70
209.45
157.57
80.76
582.27
Students
432,134
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

24. Results robust to alternative instruments
Median class time bus (minutes)
Median class distance car (km)
Median class time car (minutes)
Mathematics
Reading
% leaving
***
***
(0.0019)
(0.0013)
(0.0018)
F-statistic
77.53
77.54
81.27
81.32
78.53
78.57
Students
432,103
432,125
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects

25. Results robust to alternative specifications
Reshuffling classes
Student growth
Mathematics
Reading
% leaving to
***
***
elite schools
(0.0021)
(0.0015)
(0.0019)
(0.0013)
F-statistic first stage
84.78
85.70
69.01
67.67
Students
408,553
432,134
Schiltz-Mazrekaj-Horn-DeWitte
Peer effects