1. Mass Balance for the carbon cycle
Robert MacKay
Clark College and Washington State University Vancouver, WA

2. Camping

3. Student Learning Goals
Use a model to estimate the future concentrations of carbon dioxide under several different assumed emission scenarios.
Learn how different carbon dioxide emission scenarios influence our best prediction of future global temperatures.
Learn how a mass balance model applies to the global atmosphere.
Calibrate a model with recent observations.
Understand the sluggishness of the carbon cycle to anthropogenic changes.
Synthesis results into a well written summary.
Accurately read graphical information.
Read and interpolate data from a table of values.

5. From page 212 IPCC “Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis”

7. Basic Model

8. t0= infinite t1=172.9 t2=18.51 t3=1.186 IPCC 2007 page 213 a0=0.217
Introduction to multi-box models (lecture notes)

9. Model and preliminary assignment
“Normal modes and the transient response of the climate system” , GRL
MacKay and Ko, ( )

10. Conclusion
The model can be used in an interactive lecture discussion or as an assignment.
Implements the 2007 IPCC carbon impulse response function.
Captures both the fast response and the sluggishness of the carbon cycle.
Helps students understand how policy changes today have limited short term (20 yr) influence but important long term (60 yr) influence.
Gives students more practice using graphical information.
Open ended questions allow student to think for themselves.