1. Problem No.1 Good guess
In 1906, Francis Galton observed a contest where 800 farmers guessed an animal's weight. To his surprise, the median of the guesses was within 0.8% of the true measured weight. What is the chance of obtaining such a good match by coincidence? Select an interesting and important parameter, measure it directly, and give a group of human observers the task to guess the value of the parameter. Discuss the results of your experiments.
2019/2/24
Qingdao No.2 High school

2. Catalog General Instruction Design of the paper
Conclusion of the survey
Data Analysis
The improvement of the survey
Conclusion
First, I’m going to introduce my experimental setup and the key observation in the preliminary experiment.
Then, I’ll speak my theoretical investigation by 2 parts.
At last, I’ll come up with my conclusion and analyze the uncertainties to propose further insight.
Qingdao No.2 High School

3. Catalog General Instruction Design of the paper
Conclusion of the survey
Data Analysis
The improvement of the survey
Conclusion
First, I’m going to introduce my experimental setup and the key observation in the preliminary experiment.
Then, I’ll speak my theoretical investigation by 2 parts.
At last, I’ll come up with my conclusion and analyze the uncertainties to propose further insight.
Qingdao No.2 High School

4. Our selection Parameter : The number of a book’s pages
Respondents : 435 students in Grade 10
Choosing three different books
2019/2/24
Qingdao No.2 High school

5. The reason of the choice
(1)Familiar objects to respondents
(2)Always used, but needn’t to know
(3)Large data
2019/2/24
Qingdao No.2 High school

6. Catalog General Instruction Design of the paper
Conclusion of the survey
Data Analysis
The improvement of the survey
Conclusion
First, I’m going to introduce my experimental setup and the key observation in the preliminary experiment.
Then, I’ll speak my theoretical investigation by 2 parts.
At last, I’ll come up with my conclusion and analyze the uncertainties to propose further insight.
Qingdao No.2 High School

7. The questionnaire
2019/2/24
Qingdao No.2 High school

8. The Instruction of the questionnaire
P. 1
(1)Confirm the students are familiar to the book
(2)Find the effect of familiarity
2019/2/24
Qingdao No.2 High school

9. The Instruction of the questionnaire
P. 2
2019/2/24
Qingdao No.2 High school

10. The Instruction of the questionnaire
P. 2
Finding out :
(1) Time
(2) FEELING of the thickness
(3) FEELING of the weight
2019/2/24
Qingdao No.2 High school

11. The Instruction of the questionnaire
P. 3
(Picture)
2019/2/24
Qingdao No.2 High school

12. The Instruction of the questionnaire
(1) A book NO respondents known
(2) Give the data
Finding out:
ONLY guess or not
(2) The most important data of guessing
P. 3
2019/2/24
Qingdao No.2 High school

13. Catalog General Instruction Design of the paper
Conclusion of the survey
Data Analysis
The improvement of the survey
Conclusion
First, I’m going to introduce my experimental setup and the key observation in the preliminary experiment.
Then, I’ll speak my theoretical investigation by 2 parts.
At last, I’ll come up with my conclusion and analyze the uncertainties to propose further insight.
Qingdao No.2 High School

14. General instruction of some data
The number of all respondents: 435
Recovery: 97.0%
Valid questionnaires: 422
The pages of book 1: 92p.
Book 2: 123p.
Book 3: 392p.
Qingdao No.2 High School

15. Catalog General Instruction Design of the paper
Conclusion of the survey
Data Analysis
The improvement of the survey
Conclusion
First, I’m going to introduce my experimental setup and the key observation in the preliminary experiment.
Then, I’ll speak my theoretical investigation by 2 parts.
At last, I’ll come up with my conclusion and analyze the uncertainties to propose further insight.
Qingdao No.2 High School

16. 1.General guessing（average＆median）
Book 1: (14.28%)
Book 2: (6.9%)
Book 3: (20.1%)
Median：
Book 1：100（8.69%）
Book 2：120（2.44%）
Book 3：300（23.5%）
NOT pretty exact guessing as expected
Qingdao No.2 High School

17. 2.Time’s influence on guessing (book 1: 92p.)
The last time you read it:
In 1 week: (16.3%) 110
In 1 month: (10.32%) 100
In 3 months: 99.86(8.54%) 100
In 6 months: (16.86%) 100
Over 6 months: (13.63%) 100
NO obvious relation with LAST time
Qingdao No.2 High School

18. 2.Time’s influence on guessing (book 2: 123p.)
Times of using In 1 week:
0 time: (17.89%)
1-3 times: (11.48%)
4-7 times: (14.38%)
8-10 times: (9.96%)
Over 10 times: (2.65%)
The more times using, the more accurately people guessed
Qingdao No.2 High School

19. 3.Guessing book 2 according to FEELING （123p.）
Guessing after Feeling: (2.69%)
By seeing thickness:
By feeling the weight:
By other methods(experience, guessing, comparing):
Seeing thickness(vision) is better than feeling of weight(touch)
Qingdao No.2 High School

20. 4.Guessing book 3 relying on data（392p.）
Weight: (6.87%)
Thickness(cm): (13.24%)
Another book’s pages nearby: (4.37%)
People’s thinking of the most accuracy data and truth data:
Weight: 19.89% →
Thickness: 25.57% →
Comparing: 54.54% →
Comparing helps people most to guess(no matter what they thought)
Qingdao No.2 High School

21. 5.Influence of reading background (e.g. book 3 392p.)
The number of reading books this term:
General: (20.1%)
Over 20: (18.6%)
Over 30: (15.7%)
Over 40: (15.0%)
The more books were read, the more accurately people guessed
Qingdao No.2 High School

22. 6.Do you see this picture CLEAYLY?(book 3: 392p.)
YES: NO:
Vision plays an important role in guessing(no matter what type of data was provided).
Qingdao No.2 High School

23. Qingdao No.2 High School

24. Catalog General Instruction Design of the paper
Conclusion of the survey
Data Analysis
The improvement of the survey
Conclusion
First, I’m going to introduce my experimental setup and the key observation in the preliminary experiment.
Then, I’ll speak my theoretical investigation by 2 parts.
At last, I’ll come up with my conclusion and analyze the uncertainties to propose further insight.
Qingdao No.2 High School

25. The improvement of the survey
More people from different schools and ages
Let people do the questionnaires more seriously
More comparing——ages, styles of books……
More professional people(librarian, printing people)
Qingdao No.2 High School

26. Catalog General Instruction Design of the paper
Conclusion of the survey
Data Analysis
The improvement of the survey
Conclusion
First, I’m going to introduce my experimental setup and the key observation in the preliminary experiment.
Then, I’ll speak my theoretical investigation by 2 parts.
At last, I’ll come up with my conclusion and analyze the uncertainties to propose further insight.
Qingdao No.2 High School

27. Conclusion Based on our survey:
1.ONLY guessing is not very accurate (even familiarity)
（But some results are really unexpected）
2.Providing some data helps people make a more accurate guess
3.More familiar often means more accurate guess
4.Vision play an important role in guessing
5.Comparing is a good way to guess
Qingdao No.2 High School

28. Thanks for listening!
Qingdao No.2 High School