1. Is Schrödinger’s Cat Alive in 2030?
Effects of Rolling Dice or
Is Schrödinger’s Cat Alive in 2030?

2. Model Set-Up Socio-Economic Core Model Data Java 3 Iterations Networks
4 Period
Highway and Transit
Assignments

3. Discrete Choice Effects
Three Ways to Run the Model
All Choices, Including Household and Person Files, Are Allowed to Vary
Household and Person Files Remain Constant – Tour Generation, Distribution, Mode Choice Vary - Standard Run
Household and Person Files, Tour Generation and Distribution Remain Constant – Mode Choice Varies (FTA New Starts Version – No Feedback)

4. Model Formulation

5. 2030 Model Runs Standard Run – Equilibrium Assignment with Gap=.001
Variable HH Run – Equilibrium Assignment with Gap=.00001

6. Total VMT - Regular Run

7. Total VMT Gap

8. Total VMT - Variable Run

9. Total VMT

10. Freeway VMT

11. Arterial/Collector VMT

12. VMT by District

13. VMT by Ring

14. VMT by Ring 9

15. VMT by Sector

16. Non-Attainment Area

17. Ozone Redesignation
Ran the Model Several Times to Assess the Impacts of Variability
Ran the Assignments Through ODOT’s Air Quality Analysis Post-Processor
Link Volumes by Hour, by Direction, by Functional Class x Emission Factors

18. Ozone Redesignation

19. HC

20. NOx

21. CO

22. PM2.5

23. What That Means for the Cat
No Run Was Off the Final Average for Any Pollutant by More than +/- 0.2%.
PM2.5 Was More Variable than HC, NOx, or CO.
Number of Equilibrium Iterations Affected the Final Outcome More than the Realization Effects.
In Columbus, the Cat is Always Alive in 2030.

24. Count Coefficient of Variation
Sampling Error Inherent in Traffic Counts
Coef of Variation = St. Dev. / Mean
USDOT’s “Guide to Urban Traffic Counting” Indicates Sampling Error for 24 Hour Counts is:
CV = ( /ln(COUNT))

25. Link Coefficient of Variation

26. Link Coefficient of Variation

27. Link Coefficient of Variation
CVcount = ( /ln(COUNT))
CVregular = ( /ln(24 Hr Volume))
CVvariable = ( /ln(24 Hr Volume))

28. Link Coefficient of Variation

29. Link Coefficient of Variation

30. Link Coefficient of Variation

31. Mr. Zhuojun Jiang – MORPC 614-233-4147 Ms. Rebekah Anderson – ODOT
Photo Credits: JM
Scientific American
Mr. Zhuojun Jiang – MORPC
Ms. Rebekah Anderson – ODOT
Thanks also to Greg Giaimo.