1. Potential Impact of Changes in MN Math Grad Testing for Students in Bloomington Public Schools David Heistad, Executive Director Research, Evaluation and Assessment Bloomington Public School November, 2012

2. Context for the Study Bloomington Public Schools has embarked on a comprehensive initiative to prepare students for graduation and college readiness. As part of that initiative, the REA Department in Bloomington conducted a series of longitudinal growth analyses in reading and math to establish benchmarks for graduation and college readiness.

4. Methodology ACT scores were captured for all students who took the test in 2011 and matched by name and student id number to the results of the 11 th grade Math MCAII used to determine initial graduation status. Using an equal percentile method, the MCAII Math scores were linked with ACT Math scores. Using MN Office of Higher Ed data on the typical ACT scores of admitted students, classification accuracy analysis was conducted using MCAII Math scores as the predictor.

5. Distribution of 2011 Bloomington ACT Scores On track to graduate Based on Math Grad & College Eligible College Eligible but not On track to graduate based on MCA >= 1150

7. 2011 Bloomington ACT Math Results

8. Results Passing the MCAII Math Test in 11 th grade with a score of 1150 or higher is equivalent to an ACT math score of 22 According to MN Office of Higher Ed, 25% of students accepted to MN 4-year colleges had an ACT math score of 18 or lower (e.g., Bemidji, St. Cloud, Moorhead) Using ACT math score of 18 as 4-year college eligible, it was determined that 26% of Bloomington Public Schools 11 th graders who were 4-year college eligible did not pass the MCAII Math Test in Grade 11. This would impact 104 families of students who took the ACT test (i.e., if the Grad Testing Law reverted to high stake Math testing with a cut score equivalent to the MCAII Math = 1150).

9. Results Continued Of those students who re-took the MCAII Math tests in 12 th grade, 25% passed the MCAII Math test with 3 re-testing tries. This would still leave about 75 families where the 12 th grade student had an ACT high enough to be eligible for acceptance in a four year college but would be denied a diploma based on the MCAII Math test. Details follow:

10. Equal Percentile Linking The correlation between MCAII Math and the ACT Math test scores is high:.856

11. Bloomington Students who took MCAII Math and ACT Math in 11 th Grade Mean =23Mean = 1153

12. Equal Percentile Linking 1150 = 22 ACT Math

13. Classification Accuracy in Predicting 4yr College Readiness 26% of College Eligible Students Failed 11 th Grade MCA Math

14. Selected MN Colleges where 25% of Accepted Students have ACT Math Scores of 18 or lower Saint Marys U of M St. Cloud State University Minnesota State University Moorhead Bemidji State University University of MN Crookston

15. Rationale for 25 th Percentile of ACT as college eligible If the independent probability of getting into one of these schools with an ACT of 18 =.25, then the probability of getting accepted into one of these schools is 1-(.75) 5 = approximately ¾.

17. 2011 Bloomington Grad Retests

18. On-course to graduate and 4-year college eligibility based on current Grad Rule The following slide shows the NWEA (MAP or CALT) Spring scale scores for reading that predict on-course for MN High School Graduation and MN 4-year college eligibility based on equal percentile linkages for students continuously enrolled in Bloomington from grade 2 (2006-07) to grade 7 (2011-12). These scores were cross-validated on 2 independent cohorts of continuously enrolled students.

19. Grades 2-7 On Course to Graduate and 4-year College based on CALT Reading linked to ACT Composite Score ACT = 29

20. On-course to graduate and 4-year college eligibility based on Grad Rule reverting to Grade 11 Math MCA at 1145 or higher The following slide shows the NWEA (MAP or CALT) Spring scale scores for math that predict on-course for MN High School Graduation and MN 4-year college eligibility based on equal percentile linkages for students continuously enrolled in Bloomington from grade 2 (2006-07) to grade 7 (2011-12). These scores were cross-validated on 2 independent cohorts of continuously enrolled students. This analysis assumes that students can increase 5 MCA scale score points with remediation and re-testing in 12 th grade.

21. Grades 2-7 On Course to Graduate* and 4-year College based on CALT Math linked to ACT Composite Score ACT = 29 *Based on reverting to high stakes 11 th Grade Math test with retests