1. Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
16th- 17th October 2008
Participants Looking Back: What Are Perceptions of Participants of Past Foresight Activities on the Impact on Policy-making?
Tatsuro Yoda
Institute for Future Technology

2. Introduction Research question
Participants Looking Back: What Are Perceptions of Participants of Past Foresight Activities on the Impact on Policy-making?
Introduction
　Research question
What are the perceptions of various types of participants of foresight activities on the impact on policy-making?
Purposes
To know the views of participants on the impact of foresight they participated,
To know the effect of respondent’s characteristics on their perception on impact, and
To collect suggestions for increasing the quantity and quality of impact of foresight results.

3. Introduction (cont.) Concept
Participants Looking Back: What Are Perceptions of Participants of Past Foresight Activities on the Impact on Policy-making?
Introduction (cont.)
Concept

4. Methodology Which foresights to analyze
Participants Looking Back: What Are Perceptions of Participants of Past Foresight Activities on the Impact on Policy-making?
Methodology
Which foresights to analyze
We measure the impact of foresight, perceived by scientists and engineers who participated in major foresight activities in Japan
6th Delphi survey in 1995/96
7th Delphi survey in 1999/2000
8th Delphi survey in 2003/04
“Social Vision towards 2025” in 2006/2007
Science Council of Japan foresight in 2006/2007.
Methodology
Conduct interviews with key members of panel committees on those foresights.
Ask members in panels, respondents to survey, and participants in workshops for the five foresights, about their perceptions (internet-based survey)
Summarize the survey results and analyze the data based on statistical model.

5. Methodology What to ask in interviews What was your role in foresight?
Participants Looking Back: What Are Perceptions of Participants of Past Foresight Activities on the Impact on Policy-making?
Methodology
What to ask in interviews
What was your role in foresight?
Do you think that the result of foresight is utilized by policymakers or firms?
Do you know any examples of impact of foresight on policy making?
Do you think that the current level of impact of foresight is appropriate?
What do you think is necessary to increase the size of impact?
What to ask in internet-based survey
Respondent’s organization, age, role in foresight, S & T areas
What do you think is the level of impact of the foresight:
with regard to type of organization (government, etc)?
with regard to type of impact (research priorities, etc.)?
with regard to policy areas (human development, etc.)?
On the whole, what is the level of impact of the foresight? Appropriate?
What do you think is the reason why it was not possible to achieve the appropriate level of impact?

6. Participants Looking Back: What Are Perceptions of Participants of Past Foresight Activities on the Impact on Policy-making?
Background

7. Participants Looking Back: What Are Perceptions of Participants of Past Foresight Activities on the Impact on Policy-making?
Results
Interviews
Most of the members of Delphi survey perceive that the impacts of those foresights have not been very high.
Most of them think that there are problems in government to utilize the results for policy making.
Foresights provide general direction.
Some of them think that there is limitation in Delphi methodology, which do not produce concrete proposals or measures for policy making.
As to two foresights related to “Innovation 25”, all interviewees think that the results are used by the report of “Innovation 25.”

8. Participants Looking Back: What Are Perceptions of Participants of Past Foresight Activities on the Impact on Policy-making?
Results (cont.)
Survey

9. Results (cont.) Survey (cont.)
Participants Looking Back: What Are Perceptions of Participants of Past Foresight Activities on the Impact on Policy-making?
Results (cont.)
Survey (cont.)

10. Results (cont.) Survey (cont.)
Participants Looking Back: What Are Perceptions of Participants of Past Foresight Activities on the Impact on Policy-making?
Results (cont.)
Survey (cont.)

11. Results (cont.) Survey (cont.)
Participants Looking Back: What Are Perceptions of Participants of Past Foresight Activities on the Impact on Policy-making?
Results (cont.)
Survey (cont.)
Overall size of impact is perceived to be not strong.
Level of impact is perceived to be not enough by almost 80 percent of respondents.
Low level of impact of foresights in Japan is perceived to be caused by:
1) low level of efforts by the government to make impact on policy, and
2) low level of interest of the general public in the results of the foresights.
General trend is that the perception on the level of impact has been increasing in the successive Delphi surveys (but not statistically significant).
The perception on the level is higher for the participants in “Social Vision toward 2025” and much lower for the participants in the Science Council of Japan foresight.

12. Results (cont.) Analysis on survey data
Participants Looking Back: What Are Perceptions of Participants of Past Foresight Activities on the Impact on Policy-making?
Results (cont.)
Analysis on survey data
Effect of respondent’s characteristics on perception on impact and other variables (for pooled data (see Table below) and for data for respondents in each foresight)
Effect of respondent’s characteristics on perception on what causes low level of impact (odds ratio) (pooled data)

13. Results (cont.) Analysis on survey data (cont.)
Participants Looking Back: What Are Perceptions of Participants of Past Foresight Activities on the Impact on Policy-making?
Results (cont.)
Analysis on survey data (cont.)
Ordered logistic regression is used for examining the effect of various factors on perception on policy impact.
Survey respondents at private firms or at not-for-profit organizations perceive larger impact of foresight than respondents at universities (base group), controlling for other factors.
Survey respondents in their 20s, 30s, and 40s perceive smaller level of impact than respondents in their 50s.
Survey respondents in life science, nano/material or social infrastructure perceive larger level of impact than respondents in other science and technology areas, controlling for other factors (pooled data).
Respondents who perceived more impact are in S & T areas in
environment, manufacturing and frontier (6th Delphi survey), and
life sciences and nano/material (for the 7th Delphi survey and 8th Delphi survey)

14. Participants Looking Back: What Are Perceptions of Participants of Past Foresight Activities on the Impact on Policy-making?
Conclusion
Findings
Perceived level of impact on policy making among participants in foresights in Japan is low, based on the results of interviews and survey for the participants in 5 foresights in Japan. Majority think that the current level of impact is not enough.
There are different pattern of perception on impact on policy making by ages, occupations (organizations), member status, and S & T areas.
There are different pattern of perception on the cause of low level of impact by ages, etc.
Proposed a methodology that makes it possible to compare the impact of foresights, using the voices and opinions of scientists and engineers who participated in them.

15. Conclusion Policy implications Acknowledgement
Participants Looking Back: What Are Perceptions of Participants of Past Foresight Activities on the Impact on Policy-making?
Conclusion
Policy implications
The perception of impact among foresight participants in Japan is low and most of them think that the level of impact are not enough. Government can do more to increase the impact.
Many point out that planning of foresight should include how to utilize the results for policy making. It is worth examining whether suggestions proposed by participants can increase the impact.
Impact is perceived differently among participants of foresight. It is better to collect opinions of participants in various organizations, science and technology areas, member group, or age groups, to see the whole picture.
This study is partly funded by the Watanabe Memorial Foundation for the Advancement of Technology.
Acknowledgement