1. Climate Change and Water Scarcity
Eddy Moors
January 8th, 2018

2. Some definitions for this talk Climate change Impacts Options
Introduction
Some definitions for this talk
Climate change
Impacts
Options

3. Water scarcity
Water scarcity is the lack of sufficient available water resources to meet water needs within a region.
It affects every continent and around 2.8 billion people around the world at least one month out of every year.
Water scarcity can result from two mechanisms:
physical (absolute) water scarcity
economic water scarcity
Image taken from the internet

4. Meteorological drought Agro hydrological drought
What is a drought?
Physical water scarcity
Economic water scarcity
Precipitation deficit
Meteorological drought
Evaporation
Soil water deficit
Agro hydrological drought
Surface water deficit
Hydrological drought
Water demand
Soc. Econ. drought
Antecedent water storage
Groundwater deficit
Hydrological drought

5. Trends: Climate change: CO2 emissions
Global Carbon Project:

6. Mitigation of emissions Energy trends
Oil
Nuclear
Energy generation
Coal
Gas
Wind
Fossil PV
Solar
(see e.g. reneweconomy.com.au & static.cdn-seekingalpha.com)

7. IPCC: The future climate
scenarios
(Source: IPCC AR5)

8. CC impacts (IPCC AR5)

9. Urbanization Globally 2017 > 50% 2050 > 65%
(Source: United Nations)

10. Groundwater trend (e.g. Iran)
~ -0.5 m per year
Groundwater table lowers 0.5 m year

11. Global Risk Landscape 2018

12. What is in the news?

13. Precipitation of Cape Townmm
days
Source: Modelled data Meteoblue

14. Crop specific seasonal water demand
Shifting precipitation patterns in time and space
Crop specific seasonal water demand
Shift in melt run off
High temperatures
Monsoon
variability
(Source: Biemans et al, 2016)

15. Other cities other causes
São Paulo: days of water supply
Bangalore: 85% of the lakes insufficient water quality
Beijing: % of surface water polluted
Cairo: polluted water and expected shortage in 2025
Jakarta: 40% below sea level, no replenishment of aquifers
Moscow: 35 – 60% drinking water reserves do not meet sanitation standards
Istanbul: 2014 city’s reservoirs declined to <30% of capacity
Mexico city: water losses 40%, 40% of its water is imported
London: water supply problems by 2025 becoming serious by 2040
Tokyo: rainfall season of 4 months
Miami: salt water intrusion
Source: BBC 11 February 2018

16. Ways forward Increase water productivity
Restore the sponge function of the soil (aquifer restoration)
Water treatment and re-use
Drought management …

17. Water demand
… and energy

18. Production/supply chain: efficiency improvement and demand management
25/02/2019
Production/supply chain: efficiency improvement and demand management
Energy efficiency
Emission efficiency
Product service efficiency
Demand management
Material efficiency
IPCC WGIII AR5
Figure TS.25. A schematic illustration of industrial activity over the supply chain. Options for
mitigation in the industry sector are indicated by the circled numbers: (1) energy efficiency; (2)
emissions efficiency; (3a) material efficiency in manufacturing; (3b) material efficiency in product
design; (4) product-service efficiency; (5) service demand reduction [Figure 10.1]

19. Key questions: How do we share our waters, now and in the future?
Can we provide seasonal drought/scarcity forecasts?
Are drought and flood mitigation measures complementary?
Can we increase the “sponge” capacity of our landscape?
Can we manage our demands?
How to engage stakeholders? Differences in perceptions!
How do we finance the mitigation measures?
Do we have enough time to implement these measures?
How do we share our waters, now and in the future?

20. Global Risk Landscape 2018
Water Crisis

21. Thank you for your attention