1. Crop Market Outlook Insuring Iowa’s Agriculture Workshop Ames, Iowa
Nov. 7, 2016
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.4
173.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,601
15,057
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
1,738
Imports
160 36 32 67 50
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,400
16,845
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,324
5,192
5,650
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,200
5,206
5,275
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,360
1,367
1,375
Exports
730
1,920
1,864
1,898
2,225
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,662
14,525
Ending Stocks
2,320
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.25
Source: USDA-WAOB, modified 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
48.0
51.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,926
4,269
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
197
Imports 41 72 33 24 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,140
4,496
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,873
1,886
1,950
Seed & Residual
105
107
146
121
126
Exports
1,317
1,638
1,842
1,936
2,025
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,862
3,943
4,101
Ending Stocks
395
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.05
Source: USDA-WAOB, modified 3 3

4. Corn Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Corn Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Corn Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Soy Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Soybean Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

9. Soybean Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

10. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

13. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

14. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14

15. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Change in Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Change in Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

20. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

21. Corn Grind for Ethanol

22. Current Corn Futures
3.66
3.29
Source: CME Group, 11/4/2016

23. Current Soybean Futures
9.46
9.34
Source: CME Group, 11/4/2016

24. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Trend Yields

25. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

26. 2017/18 Crop Margins

27. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

28. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

29. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: