1. Ag Markets, Trade, & Outlook
Oct. 2, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. Source: USDA-FAS

3. Source: USDA-FAS

4. Source: USDA-FAS

5. Source: USDA-FAS

6. Value of Ag Trade
Source: USDA-FAS

7. U.S. Ag Exports
Source: USDA-FAS

8. Why do U.S. farmers need export markets?
That’s where the customers are
That’s where the economic growth is
That’s where the consumption growth is
We produce surpluses
We only eat high on the hog
Exports are crucial to farm income

9. 96% of the world’s population lives outside the US
Source: CIA World Factbook

10. Population growth 2017 to 2050
Source: World Bank

11. Economic growth rates
Source: CIA World Factbook

13. Top ten US ag export markets, 2016
Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics, FATUS export aggregations

15. Population vs. arable land
Share of global Share of global
population arable land
China 19% 5%
India 17% 10%
US 4% 13%

16. Arable Land

17. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.0
94.0
90.2
89.1
0.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
168.4
174.6
176.6
181.3
3.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,602
15,148
14,604
14,827
241
Beg. Stocks
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,140
138
Imports 67 57 40 50
Total Supply
15,401
16,942
16,937
17,017
453
Feed & Residual
5,120
5,470
5,312
5,575
Ethanol
5,224
5,432
5,600
5,650 25
Food, Seed, & Other
1,422
1,453
1,460
1,480
Exports
1,898
2,294
2,425
2,400
Total Use
13,664
14,649
14,897
15,105
125
Ending Stocks
1,912
228
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.61
3.36
3.40
3.50
-0.10
Source: USDA-WAOB, with adjustments for Stocks 17 17

18. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2015
2016
2017
2018
Δ2018
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
82.7
83.4
90.1
89.6
0.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
48.0
52.0
49.3
52.8
1.2
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,926
4,296
4,411
4,693
107
Beg. Stocks
191
197
302
438 8
Imports 24 22 25
Total Supply
4,140
4,515
4,735
5,156
116
Crush
1,886
1,901
2,055
2,070 10
Seed & Residual
122
146
112
137 1
Exports
1,936
2,166
2,130
2,060
Total Use
3,944
4,214
4,289
4,268 12
Ending Stocks
888
103
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
8.95
9.47
9.35
8.60
-0.30
Source: USDA-WAOB, with adjustments for Stocks 18 18

19. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 19 19

20. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 20 20

21. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 21 21

22. USDA Objective Corn Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS 22 22

23. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 23 23

24. USDA Objective Soy Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS 24 24

25. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 25 25

26. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

27. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

28. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

29. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

30. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

31. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

32. Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2017 crop Sales for 2018 crop
Source: USDA-FAS

33. Ethanol Production
Source: EIA

34. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

35. Current Corn Futures
4.01
3.68
Source: CME Group, 10/1/2018

36. Current Soybean Futures
9.12
8.52
Source: CME Group, 10/1/2018

37. 2018/19 Crop Margins
Based on futures prices

38. Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices

39. Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices

40. Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

41. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: