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Overview of Climate Impact Assessment Framework and Implementation

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Presentation on theme: "Overview of Climate Impact Assessment Framework and Implementation"— Presentation transcript:

1 Overview of Climate Impact Assessment Framework and Implementation
Gary Shenk CBPO STAC Workshop Chesapeake Bay Program Climate Change Modeling 2.0 9/24/2018

2 Accounting for Changing Conditions Cumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

3 Watershed Group Estuarine Group Framework Group RCP selection
GCM Selection Process Framework Group Downscaling Method Creation of future climate scenarios Observed Trends Human responses to climate change Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment Estuarine Process-based model Effect on water quality standards Management Effort Adjustment

4 Chesapeake Bay Program
Modeling for TMDL Water Quality Standards based on hydrology Project to 2025 (30 years) and 2050 (55 years) Presented to Principals’ Staff Committee in PSC asked for additional analysis to be completed in 2019

5 Watershed Group Estuarine Group Framework Group RCP selection
GCM Selection Process Framework Group Downscaling Method Creation of future climate scenarios Observed Trends Human responses to climate change Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment Estuarine Process-based model Effect on water quality standards Management Effort Adjustment

6 Creation of future climate scenarios
Watershed Group RCP selection Estuarine Group GCM Selection Process Framework Group Downscaling Method Downscaling Method Creation of future climate scenarios Observed Trends 2016 STAC workshop The Development of Climate Projections for Use in Chesapeake Bay Program Assessments (Johnson et al. 2016). 2025: Use long-term observed trends for precipitation 2050 precipitation and all temperature: Use an ensemble of existing downscaling of CMIP5 models Carefully consider evapotranspiration Use RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5

7 Creation of future climate scenarios
Watershed Group RCP selection Estuarine Group GCM Selection Process Framework Group Downscaling Method Downscaling Method Creation of future climate scenarios Observed Trends Observed Precipitation Trends PRISM precipitation data Aggregated to annual values of a county OLS regression to determine slope 30 years of slope applied to each month of rainfall data

8 Creation of future climate scenarios
Watershed Group RCP selection Estuarine Group GCM Selection Process Framework Group Downscaling Method Downscaling Method Creation of future climate scenarios Observed Trends Used RCP 4.5 for scenario run through the full modeling system and shown to PSC Found significant overlap with RCP 2.6 and 8.5

9 Creation of future climate scenarios
Watershed Group RCP selection Estuarine Group GCM Selection Process Framework Group Downscaling Method Downscaling Method Creation of future climate scenarios Observed Trends GCM selection Used the same group of models and model runs that were used in NOAA’s Climate Resilience Toolkit Precipitation Difference

10 Creation of future climate scenarios
Watershed Group RCP selection Estuarine Group GCM Selection Process Framework Group Downscaling Method Downscaling Method Creation of future climate scenarios Observed Trends Downscaling methods: Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) - used for runs in 2017 Investigating Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) Investigating Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) Literature exists to support the idea that all are reasonable approaches

11 Creation of future climate scenarios
Watershed Group RCP selection Estuarine Group GCM Selection Process Framework Group Downscaling Method Downscaling Method Creation of future climate scenarios Observed Trends Ensemble Method Used the median temperature and precipitation change from the ensemble for each month for the primary run. Used the corners of the 90th percentile ‘box’ to investigate uncertainty Precipitation Difference

12 Creation of future climate scenarios
Watershed Group RCP selection Estuarine Group GCM Selection Process Framework Group Downscaling Method Downscaling Method Creation of future climate scenarios Observed Trends Literature shows that the increases in precipitation over the previous century have primarily occurred in the highest precipitation events. Two methods of rainfall addition Multiply all rainfall events by the same factor Multiply rainfall events within a decile by a factor such that the top decile increases a greater percentage as shown

13 Creation of future climate scenarios
Watershed Group RCP selection Estuarine Group GCM Selection Process Framework Group Downscaling Method Downscaling Method Creation of future climate scenarios Observed Trends CO2 IPCC 5 Working Group 1 RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 1995 363 2025 421 423 432 2050 443 487 541

14 Creation of future climate scenarios
Watershed Group RCP selection Estuarine Group GCM Selection Process Framework Group Downscaling Method Downscaling Method Creation of future climate scenarios Observed Trends PET Use Hargreaves-Samani to calculate change in PET Function of temperature and extraterrestrial radiation Apply the change in PET to the Base PET used in the Phase 6 model

15 Watershed Group Estuarine Group Framework Group RCP selection
GCM Selection Process Framework Group Downscaling Method Creation of future climate scenarios Observed Trends Human responses to climate change Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment Estuarine Process-based model Effect on water quality standards Management Effort Adjustment

16 Watershed Group Estuarine Group Framework Group
Creation of future climate scenarios Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment

17 Watershed Group Estuarine Group Framework Group
Creation of future climate scenarios Watershed Group Estuarine Group Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment Framework Group

18 HSPF simulation of hydrology is sensitive to: Precipitation PET CO2
Creation of future climate scenarios Watershed Group Estuarine Group Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment Framework Group HSPF simulation of hydrology is sensitive to: Precipitation PET CO2 Temperature (snowfall and snowmelt)

19 HSPF simulation of sediment is sensitive to:
Creation of future climate scenarios Watershed Group Estuarine Group Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment Framework Group HSPF simulation of sediment is sensitive to: Precipitation Runoff PET, temperature, CO2, precip

20 Phase 6 model is time-averaged for N and P from the land
Creation of future climate scenarios Watershed Group Estuarine Group Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment Framework Group Phase 6 model is time-averaged for N and P from the land Sensitivity to climate must be specified

21 Nitrogen Sensitivities Agriculture Nitrogen Sensitivities Developed
Creation of future climate scenarios Watershed Group Estuarine Group Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment Framework Group Nitrogen Sensitivities Agriculture Fertilizer Manure Atmospheric Deposition Fixation Crop Cover Uptake Nitrogen Sensitivities Developed Fertilizer Atmospheric Deposition Crop Cover Uptake Natural Delivery Available water capacity Groundwater recharge Piedmont carbonate

22 Nitrogen assumption: Phase 5.3.2 No changes to the concentrations
Creation of future climate scenarios Watershed Group Estuarine Group Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment Framework Group Nitrogen assumption: No changes to the concentrations proportional change in load to a change in flow. Phase 5.3.2 Nitrogen change = 64% of flow change

23 Nitrogen assumption: ‘20 watersheds’ study
Creation of future climate scenarios Watershed Group Estuarine Group Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment Framework Group Nitrogen assumption: No changes to the concentrations proportional change in load to a change in flow. ‘20 watersheds’ study Nitrogen change = 115% of flow change

24 CBPO literature review
Creation of future climate scenarios Watershed Group Estuarine Group Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment Framework Group Nitrogen assumption: No changes to the concentrations proportional change in load to a change in flow. CBPO literature review Nitrate change = 100% of flow change

25 Phosphorus Sensitivities Agriculture
Creation of future climate scenarios Watershed Group Estuarine Group Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment Framework Group Phosphorus Sensitivities Agriculture Soil P Applied Water Extractable P Stormflow Sediment Washoff Developed Fertilizer Natural Delivery Well-drained soils

26 River Delivery is simulated by HSPF
Creation of future climate scenarios Watershed Group Estuarine Group Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment Framework Group River Delivery is simulated by HSPF Scour and deposition of sediment nutrients simulated in rivers greater than 100 cfs

27 Watershed Group Estuarine Group Framework Group RCP selection
GCM Selection Process Framework Group Downscaling Method Creation of future climate scenarios Observed Trends Human responses to climate change Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment Estuarine Process-based model Effect on water quality standards Management Effort Adjustment

28 Human responses to climate change
Watershed Group Estuarine Group Framework Group Human responses to climate change

29 Human responses to climate change
Watershed Group Estuarine Group Framework Group Sensitivities are built in, but need to know how they change in response to human actions Nitrogen Sensitivities Agriculture Fertilizer Manure Atmospheric Deposition Fixation Crop Cover Uptake Nitrogen Sensitivities Developed Fertilizer Atmospheric Deposition Crop Cover Uptake Natural Phosphorus Sensitivities Agriculture Soil P Applied Water Extractable P Stormflow Sediment Washoff Developed Fertilizer Natural

30 Watershed Group Estuarine Group Framework Group RCP selection
GCM Selection Process Framework Group Downscaling Method Creation of future climate scenarios Observed Trends Human responses to climate change Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment Estuarine Process-based model Effect on water quality standards Management Effort Adjustment

31 Estuarine Process-based model
Watershed Group Estuarine Group Framework Group CH3D hydrodynamic CE-QUAL-ICM WQ Sediment biogeochemistry Sediment Transport Living Resources SAV Oysters Menhaden

32 Estuarine Process-based model
Watershed Group Estuarine Group Framework Group

33 Estuarine Process-based model
Watershed Group Estuarine Group Framework Group Considerations Sea level Rise Surface Temperature Ocean Boundary Condition Flow, Nutrients, Sediment, Heat from the watershed

34 Watershed Group Estuarine Group Framework Group RCP selection
GCM Selection Process Framework Group Downscaling Method Creation of future climate scenarios Observed Trends Human responses to climate change Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment Estuarine Process-based model Effect on water quality standards Management Effort Adjustment

35 Watershed Group Estuarine Group Framework Group
Effect on water quality standards Management Effort Adjustment Estuarine Group Framework Group

36 One regression for each point and each month
Watershed Group Effect on water quality standards Management Effort Adjustment Estuarine Group Framework Group One regression for each point and each month

37 Calculate Climate Effect
Watershed Group Effect on water quality standards Management Effort Adjustment Estuarine Group Framework Group Calculate Climate Effect December 2017 results Volume Weighted means a ‘red area’ increase of 80 million cubic meters

38 Ran Scenarios with 3% and 6% reduction in Susquehanna N and P
Watershed Group Effect on water quality standards Management Effort Adjustment Estuarine Group Framework Group December 2017 results Ran Scenarios with 3% and 6% reduction in Susquehanna N and P Climate Effect is 9.6% reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna 7.5 Mlbs of N and 0.33 Mlbs of P The 7.5 million N and .33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 9.1 million N and 0.49 P Basin-Wide

39 Climate Change Loads: Nitrogen
Watershed Group Effect on water quality standards Management Effort Adjustment Estuarine Group Framework Group December 2017 results Climate Change Loads: Nitrogen *Units: millions of pounds

40 Watershed Group Estuarine Group Framework Group RCP selection
GCM Selection Process Framework Group Downscaling Method Creation of future climate scenarios Observed Trends Human responses to climate change Process-based response of flow and sediment Specified response to flow and sediment Estuarine Process-based model Effect on water quality standards Management Effort Adjustment

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