1. “A Decade of Republican Control: The House of Representatives.”
Dodd and Oppenheimer

2. Republican Style of Leadership (23)
Republican Style of Leadership Lacking a mandate and a safe majority, the Reps leadership had two choices after 1994: 1) Coalitional Approach 2) Pursue a Partisan Agenda The Republican leadership choice the latter: Partisan Leadership. …

3. Purpose of Chapter
Purpose of Chapter: Context and Implications of Rep Rule The purpose of the chapter is to look at the context of Rep takeover and to examine their leadership changed the distribution of power in the House. …

4. The Era of Democratic Rule (23)
Old System: Speaker In Control Until the 1910 revolt against “Czar Cannon” (Joseph Cannon), speakers appointed committee chairs and sat on the Rules Committee. The revolt was led by Progressives Republicans who joined with Democrats to challenge Cannon. Committee-Centered Government: The old system was replaced by one where committee became dominant. In this system, comm. chairs were selected based seniority. The result a Congress governed by largely autonomous, and mostly conservative and southern Democratic comm. Chairs. …

5. A Liberalizing Congress, and the Decline of Committees: 1960-1980
A Liberalizing Congress, and the Decline of Committees: The committee-based system began to decline in the mid-1960s in response to political changes in the south (increase in African-American voters), the rise of the liberal/northern wing of the Democratic Party in Congress. …

6. Interpretations: Southern Control of Congress
Text Book Congress? Pluralist? Were Southern Conservative Members responding to Constituents/pressure groups? How would you measure it? Rational Choice? Or was their behavior shaped by specific, identifiable goals? What were they? Institutionalist? Or were they autonomous? That is, animated by the rules, norms of the House or their own vision of the world? …

7. The Republican Challenge (25)
The Republican Challenge After the 1980 election, conservative Republicans sought to gain more influence in Congress. But neither the 1980 and 1982 elections gave them control of House, despite having won several southern seats once dominated by Democrats. Conservative Republicans went on the offensive anyway, led by Newt Gingrich. …

8. Laying the Foundations (25)
Laying the Foundation: Precursor to Contract with America Republican conservatives used a number of vehicles to challenge Democratic rule in the 1980s. Some of the leading Republicans organizations included: Conservative Opportunity Society GOPAC Gingrich was elected Minority Whip in …

9. Contract with America
Contract with America The contract outlined a series of policy priorities that directly challenged the prevailing Democratic orthodoxy in the House. Asserting Control of the House: the 1994 Election (26) In 1994, the Republicans won 52 seats in the House and…in the Senate, and with that assumed control of Congress for the first time since It was the largest partisan swing since 1948 (when the Democrats won…seats). …

10. Republican Revolution: a Republican Realignment?
Did the 1994 elections signal the beginning of a period of Republican Rule? Republican Speaker: Return of Czarist Leadership? Gingrich and his leadership team (Dick Armey and Tom Delay) sought to impose a level of control over committees and the Republican Party in general not been seen since He bypassed seniority, and imposed term limits (three terms) on committee chairs and (four terms) on the speaker. Weakened Committee Government: In the process, committees were reduced to simply “rubber-stamping” legislation endorsed by the Republican leadership. …

11. Republican Agenda and Limits of Congressional Power
Contract With America: First 100 Days Gingrich pushed to enact the legislative priorities outlined by the Contract, and seized upon the budget as a vehicle to challenge a Clinton administration. Limits of Congressional Power: Government Shutdowns Clinton effectively resisted Gingrich’s efforts to control the budgetary process.

12. Republican Agenda and Limits of Congressional Power
When Gingrich shutdown the government (twice) in response. But when the public blamed the Republican leadership in Congress, Gingrich was forced to back down from directly challenging the president. His leadership never recovered. 1998: End of Gingrich House Republican impeached Clinton, but lost seats.

13. Preparing for the 2000 Elections (28)
Hastert and the Return to Modern Leadership Gone with Gingrich was the idea of a czarist Speaker Election Strategy: Changed Tactics: Work with Democrats Responding to public opposition to a conservative Republican agenda (public supported health and education programs, for example), and hoping to expand the Republican majority, the Republicans decided to develop a “constructive partnership” with the Republicans.

14. Preparing for the 2000 Elections (28)
Changing Republican Policy: In an effort to work with Democrats, the Republicans: 1) Dropped a broad tax cut in favor of “targeted cuts” 2) Supported some health and education spending 3) Worked with Clinton to nornmalize trade relations with China.

15. The Elusiveness of United Party Control: The 107th Congress (2001-2003) (29)
2000 Election: United Republican Government Despite again losing seats in the House, the Republicans retained control of Congress, and won the White House. It was the first time conservative Republicans controlled both the legislative and executive branch since the Hoover administration. Republican Party Agenda: Muscular Conservative Bush revived the Republicans push for broad tax cuts, and was warmly received by the House leadership, who proposed only minor tactical changes to the White House Proposals trillion dollar tax cut passed in May, …

16. Congress and Bush: Pre 9/11 (30-31)
House Republicans Embrace Bush Agenda House Republicans enthusiastically supported Bush’s policy agenda. Their support would prove critical to the passage of several of Bush’s top policy priorities in Where House Republican Supported Counted May 2001 Tax Cut (1.35 Trillion) Faith-based initiatives Omnibus Energy Legislation December 2001 Economic Stimulus Plan (Capital Gains Tax Cut) December 2001 Fast-Track Legislation

17. Opposition: Democratic and Republican
House Leadership Support for Bush: Frustrated Moderate Republicans The House Leadership aggressive support for Bush’s conservative agenda alienated party moderates and angered Democrats. It also distanced the House from the Senate, where moderates and Democrats had more influence. Republican Party Discipline Despite its increasingly partisan nature, the House leadership was able to keep party members in line. Jefford’s Defection: The Republicans were not able to prevent James Jefford from leaving the Republican Party in the summer of 2001 and thereby handing Democrats control of the Senate. …

18. 9/11 and War on Terror
Bush’s Popularity Surges, But Congress Struggles to be Relevance Bush’s popularity reached a record high of 90% after the attacks, but as the direction of the subsequent War on Terror became clear Congress found itself sidelined. Spectator Congress: Bush’s War Chest The House controls the purse strings, but the Republican leadership’s apparent willingness to support, and thus fund any and all White House proposals undermined its ability to shaped subsequent policies discussion surrounding the War on Terror. …

19. Analyzing 2002 (35-42)
2002: Republicans Regain Unity Government By a slim margin, the Republicans retained control of the House, and regained the Senate. For only the second time since 1934 an “in-party” (the party of the president) picked up seats in a mid-term election. The Republicans won 229 seats (one less than in 1994). Analyzing the Results: Beginning of a Republican Consolidation? Despite the gains, most observes concluded that the 2002 election did not point to a Republican realignment among the electorate, bur rather the success of Republican redistricting efforts, and Bush’s post-9/11 popularity. …

20. Post 1994 Trend: Fewer Seat Changes
Post 1994 Trend: Fewer Seat Changes The 2002 results were consistent with the previous three elections: no dramatic changes in the partisan balance. Since 1994: Republican: Most: 230 Least: 221 Democratic: Most: 212 Least: 204 …

21. Reasons for Stasis Since 1994
Reasons for Partisan Parity There are a number of reasons for the apparent partisan balance in Congress: Low Turnover since 1996: (37) In 1998 and 2000, fewer than eighteen seats changed hands, and a total of 12 incumbents were defeated (98% of incumbents were reelected. How many were challenged?) In 2002, 396 members ran for reelection. 8 lost in Primaries, 8 Lost in General Elections. Half of the 16 defeats were in redistricted districts were an incumbents ran against an incumbent. Careerists on the Rise Again: (39)

22. Reasons for Stasis Since 1994
Low “Retirement” Rates 90 % of members returned in 1998 and Redistricting Did Not Challenge as Many Incumbents Redistricting efforts 1972, 1982 and 1992 resulted in the defeat of larger numbers of incumbents. …

23. Reasons for Stasis Since 1994
Redistricting Reelection Rates 1972: 369 (84.8%) 1982: 354 (81.3%) 1992: 323 (74.2 %) 2002: 380 (87.3%)

24. 1994: Unusual Opportunity
Republican Revolution 1994 was a perfect storm for the Republicans for the following reasons: 1) Large Number of Democratic Retirements 2) Weak Democratic Incumbents (in Marginal Districts) elected on Clinton coattails in ) A number of them were southern Democrats in districts that voted Republican presidential candidates.

25. 1994: Unusual Opportunity
Taken together, these factors strained Democratic resources and gave the Republicans a target rich environment in which they could select the best chances for victory and still expect to pick up a lot of seats.

26. 2002 and Beyond:
In 2002 and Beyond: Conditions do not favor dramatic partisan shifts: Fewer Open Seats Fewer Junior members Fewer Competitive or Marginal districts >>>

27. GOP and 2016 Overlapping Congressional Origin: Changes in Leadership
Time
2016
1970s
1970s
2016
Dem Reforms (Rules, Comms, Leadership
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Left
Center
Right
Ideology

28. House of Representatives
Watergate Class
Me-Too to Newt
Rise of the Right
Republican Revolution
Liberal Attack on southern wing of the Dem. Party
Features:
- Weaken Southern Dems by weakening Comm. Chairs
a. Sub Committee
Bill of Rights
- Term limits
- Empower more liberal leadership
Rep. Right takes on strategy of me-tooism
Features:
Three part-strategy:
1. Oppose All Dems
2. Oppose Rep who
work with Dems
3. Shutdown GOVT if
necessary.
1980: Reps win majority in Senate ( )
Confrontational Rep. strategy works:
Features:
- Newt and Con. Reps win a series of battles with Dem leaders in Congress.
- Rep minority becomes more con., cohesive and influential within Congress.
Republican Revolution:
Features:
-Reps took over Congress for the first time in 40 years.
- Newt Gingrich becomes Speaker
- Consolidates power in Speakers office, a process started with Dems in 1974.

29. House of Representatives
Pelosi Period
Repeal, Repeal, Repeal
Repeal and Replace
The Future?
2016-
Liberal Dems take over Congress attacking corruption.
Features:
Attacks by Rep. push Dems libs into leadership within Dem Conf.
Opposition to Iraq War
Pelosi first female Speaker in Congress
Pass Obamacare
Reps take back House by running against Obamacare (lose in Senate).
Features:
Strategy of “NO”
Reps maintain a policy of uniform opposition to all things Obama.
Rise of the Tea Party
2012: Obama reelected
Reps maintain Majority by running against Obama/care
Features:
Reps add “repeal” to attack on Obamacare
2014: Reps win Senate
2016: Unified Rep GOVT (Congress and White House (Trump)
Unified Rep GOVT: Reps control and White House (Trump)
Features:
Rep leadership committed to Trump populist agenda?
Tax reform/cuts passed (fall 2017)
Immigration reform?