1. University of Washington hydrological modeling in La Plata basin
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington
IAI Project Meeting
The Impact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes on the
Hydroclimate of the La Plata Basin
San Luis, Argentina
April 29, 2009

2. Related publications
Su, F., Y. Hong, W.L. Crosson, H. Gao, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2010, Potential utility of the real-time TMPA-RT precipitation estimates in streamflow prediction, to be submitted, J. Geophys. Res.
Su, F. and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2009: Estimation of surface water budget of La Plata Basin, J. Hydrometeorology 10(4),
Saurral, R.I., V.R. Barros, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2008: Land use impact on the Uruguay River discharge, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L12401, doi: /2008GL
Su, F., H. Yang, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2008: Evaluation of TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and its utility in hydrologic prediction in La Plata Basin , J. Hydrometeorology, 9(4),

3. Daily time series of precipitation, maximum
Data sources
Meteorological forcings
Daily time series of precipitation, maximum
temperature, minimum temperature, and wind speed
Daily precipitation and temperature are from NCAR and GDCN (Global Daily Climatology Network) station data.
wind speed is downscaled from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis
Land surface characteristics
Soil parameters: from Global Soil Data
Products CD-ROM (IGBP-DIS)
Land cover characterization: based on University of Maryland 1-km global vegetation classifications.

4. Parana
Paraguay
Uruguay
Lower Basin
Precipitation stations for 1986 (2050)
Poor coverage areas: Paraguay basin and Lower basin of the Parana River.

5. Temperature stations for 1986 (125).
Stations are sparse for the whole basin.
Paraguay
Parana
Uruguay
Lower Basin

6. VASClimO (Variability Analysis of Surface Climate Observations) gridded monthly half-degree precipitation.
Mean monthly precipitation (this study)

7. Uruguay
Uruguay
Paraguay
Parana
Parana
Paraguay

8. Modeling the water budget of LPB
Selected results from Su et al (J Hydromet, 2009)

9. Streamflow simulations
Study area: the whole La Plata Basin
Model options: with full energy balance
Model resolution: 1/8 degree
Time step: 3-hour

10. Model description Model features:
multiple vegetation classes in each cell;
energy and water budget closure at each time step;
subgrid infiltration and runoff variability;
and non-linear baseflow generation.

11. La Plata Basin River Network at 1/8 degree

12. FIG. 7. Spatial fields of annual mean precipitation (mm/yr) from this study (a), CRU (b), VasclimO (c), and ERA-40 reanalysis (d) for La Plata Basin ( ).

13. Mean Monthly Streamflow (1979-1999)
Parana at Jupia Area:478,000km2
Paraguay
Parana
Paraguay at Bermejo
Area: 1,100,000km2
Paraguay
Parana
Uruguay
Iguazu at Estreito Area:63,236km2
Parana at Posadas Area:975,000km2
Uruguay at Paso de los Area:189,300km2
Simulated
Observed

14. FIG. 8. Spatial fields of annual mean evaporation (mm) from the VIC model (a), ERA-40 reanalysis (b), and atmospheric water budget estimates (c) for La Plata Basin (1979–1999).

15. FIG. 9. Spatial fields of annual mean runoff (mm) from the VIC model (a), ERA-40 reanalysis (b), and atmospheric moisture convergence P-E (c) for La Plata Basin (1979–1999).

16. FIG. 10. Seasonal variability of water budget components over the Uruguay, Upper Paraná, Paraguay, and the entire La Plata basin for the period : P precipitation (a), E evaporation (b), R runoff (c), and P-E (d) from observations, the VIC model and ERA-40 reanalysis, and atmospheric moisture convergence.

17. FIG. 10. Seasonal variability of water budget components over the Uruguay, Upper Paraná, Paraguay, and the entire La Plata basin for the period : P precipitation (a), E evaporation (b), R runoff (c), and P-E (d) from observations, the VIC model and ERA-40 reanalysis, and atmospheric moisture convergence.

18. Estimated recycling ratios over LPB for L = 500 m

19. Vegetation and climate change effects on streamflow in the Uruguay River basin (from Saurral et al, 2008)

20. Uruguay River basin land cover change – potential vegetation vs 1990s
1990s land cover (U MD)
Global Potential Vegetation (Ramankutty and Foley)
Forest/Woodland
Shrubland/grassland
Cropland
Uruguay River basin land cover change – potential vegetation vs 1990s

21. Simulated and observed streamflows, Uruguay River at Concordia, Uruguay – calibration ( ) and verification ( ).
Visual courtesy Ramiro Saurral and Vicente Barros, University of Buenos Aires

22. Simulated and observed mean monthly flows at Concordia, for ~1990 land cover, and sensitivity to land cover change (forest type 7; grassland type 10)
Visual courtesy Vicente Barros and Ramiro Saurral, University of Buenos Aires

23. Predicted and observed Concordia discharge, decade of 1960s (upper) and 1990s (lower), both simulations using 1990s vegetation, and consistent observing network for two decades.
Visual courtesy Vicente Barros and Ramiro Saurral, University of Buenos Aires

24. Evaluation of TRMM satellite precipitation product in hydrologic simulations of La Plata Basin
Fengge Su1, Yang Hong2, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier1
AGU Fall Meeting
December, 2006
1University of Washington, Seattle, WA
2 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD

25. Data sets and methodology
The TRMM product evaluated in this study is the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) research product Version 6 3B42.
It combines precipitation estimates from multiple satellites, as well as gauge analyses, where available, at a 3-hour time step and 0.25° degree spatial resolution.
The data set covers the latitude band 50°N-S for the period 1998 to the delayed present.
Huffman et al., 2006, The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): Quasi-Global, Multi-Year, Combined-Sensor Precipitation Estimates at Fine Scales (to appear in Journal of Hydrometeorology)

26. Methodology
Basin average precipitation estimates from the TRMM Satellite precipitation product (Version 6 3B42) and gauges are compared with each other at both daily and monthly time scales.
The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface hydrology model is forced by daily 3B42 and gauged precipitation over several subbasions of La Plata. The simulated streamflow is compared with each other and with available observed streamflow.

27. 3. Precipitation evaluation
Rrmse=60%
Rrmse=13%
Rrmse=134%
Rrmse=15%
Rrmse=44%
Scattergrams of daily basin-averaged precipitation estimated from gauged and TRMM data.

28. Monthly Basin-averaged Precipitation
Scattergrams of monthly basin-averaged precipitation estimated from gauged and TRMM data.

29. 4. Hydrological Modelling
Model features:
multiple vegetation classes in each cell;
energy and water budget closure at each time step;
subgrid infiltration and runoff variability;
and non-linear baseflow generation.
The VIC (Liang et al, 1994;1996) model is a grid-based land surface scheme designed both for inclusion in GCMs, and for use as a stand-alone macro-scale hydrological model.

30. Daily streamflow for basin 3802
3802, Uruguay at Paso de Los Libres (Area: 189, 300 km2)
m3/s m3/s m3/s
Green VS. Black: Ef = 0.85, Er = 2%
Red VS. Black: Ef = 0.48, Er = 12%
Observed
Simulated with TRMM Prce.
Simulated with gauged Prce.
Red VS. Green: Ef = 0.54, Er = 16%
Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (Ef)
Relative error (Er)

31. Daily streamflow for basin 6301, 6598, and 6682
(a) 6301, Parana at Jupia (Area: 478,000km2)
m3/s m3/s m3/s
Red VS. Green: Ef = 0.73, Er = 4%
(b) 6598, Iguazu at Estreito (Area: 63,236 km2)
Red VS. Green: Ef = 0.73, Er = -1%
Observed
Simulated with TRMM Prce.
Simulated with gauged Prce.
(c) 6682, Paraguay at Ladario (Area: 459,990 km2)
Red VS. Green: Ef = 0.72, Er = 18%
Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (Ef)
Relative error (Er)

32. Monthly streamflow for the four subbasins
m3/s m3/s m3/s m3/s
(a) 3802, Uruguay at Paso de Los Libres
(b) 6301, Parana at Jupia
(c) 6598, Iguazu at Estreito
(d) 6682, Paraguay at Ladario
Observed
Simulated with TRMM Prce.
Simulated with gauged Prce.

33. Hydrological evaluation of satellite precipitation products in La Plata basin
1Fengge Su, 2Yang Hong, 3William L. Crosson,
and 4Dennis P. Lettenmaier
AGU Fall Meeting
December, 2007
1,3USRA at NSSTC/NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL
2University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
4University of Washington, Seattle, WA 33

34. 2. Data sets and methodology
Satellite-based precipitation:
(1) The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) research product 3B42 V.6 and real-time version 3B42-RT (Huffman et al 2007) .
(2) The Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) (Sorooshian et al 2000).
(3) The Climate Prediction Center morphing method (CMORPH) (Joyce et al ).
Data resolution: 3-hour time step and 0.25° degree spatial resolution.
Study period: January 1, 2003 ~ August 31, 2006
Study area: La Plata basin (-38 ° S ~ -14 ° S, -56 ° W ~ -41 ° W, 3.1×106 km2)
All three products are satellite only (no gauge-based post-processing, as in TMPA RP) 34

35. 3. Precipitation evaluation- spatial fields
Gauge
TMPA V.6
Annual mean precipitation over La Plata basin from gridded gauge, TMPA V.6 (gauge adjusted), TMPA-RT, CMORPH, and PERSIANN estimates for the years
mm/yr
Difference of annual precipitation between satellite and gauge estimates.
mm/yr 35

36. Bias relative to gauge estimates for each year ( 2003, 2004, and 2005).
The bias significantly decreased in 2005 over basins 3802 and 6598 for the three real-time satellite precipitation products. 36

37. Spatial fields of annual mean simulated runoff (2003-2005)
Gauge TMPA V.6
Annual mean simulated runoff forced by the gauge, TMPA V.6, TMPA-RT, CMORPH, and PERSIANN estimates for the years
mm/yr
Difference of annual simulated runoff between satellite-driven and gauge-observation-driven simulations.
mm/yr 37

38. Daily simulated streamflow for basin 3802, Uruguay at Paso de los Libres (Area: 189, 300km2, Jan 2003~Aug 2006)
Simulated with satellite Precip
Simulated with gauge Precip
Bias
TMPA (%)
RT (%)
CMORPH (%)
PERSIANN (%)
2003 20
110
105
2004 32
120
142 73
2005 22 39 55 17 38

39. Daily simulated streamflow for basin 6598, Iguazu at Estreito (Area: 63,236 km2, Jan 2003~Aug 2006)
Bias
TMPA (%)
RT (%)
CMORPH (%)
PERSIANN (%)
2003 27 95
104
101
2004 28 56 80 35
2005 9 18 26 -3
Simulated with satellite Precip.
Simulated with gauge Precip. 39

40. Daily simulated streamflow for basin 6301, Parana at Jupia
(Area: 478,000km2, Jan Aug )
Bias
TMPA (%)
RT (%)
CMORPH (%)
PERSIANN (%)
2003 22 45 34 -3
2004 25 8 66 -7
2005 35 36 7
Simulated with satellite Precip.
Simulated with gauged Precip. 40

41. TMPA RT precipitation vs gridded gauge, 2005-2008 vs 2003-2004 daily

42. TMPA RT precipitation vs gridded gauge, 2005-2008 vs 2003-2004 monthly

43. VIC streamflow simulations 2003-8, gridded gauge vs TMPA-RT forcings