1. A quick note on the EU referendum
Short-term economic effects
Fall in sterling and stock markets
Upward pressure on interest rates
Lower investment & employment
Lower tax revenues; pressure to cut spending
The Brexit risk for colleges
A smaller UK economy by 2020
Rewrite of the 2015 spending review
If there’s a fiscal stimulus, likely to be capital
The positive Brexit case (the swoosh)
New trade deals & less EU regulation
Short-term pain for longer-term gain
Immigration controls may not help here