1. Crop Markets Philippines Harvest Tour of Iowa Ames, Iowa Oct. 20, 2011
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted (mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
148.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,433
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
Imports 14 8 27 15
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,576
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,803
4,700
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,020
5,000
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,395
1,410
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,835
1,600
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,053
12,710
Ending Stocks
866
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.70
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,060
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
Imports 13 15
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,290
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,635
Seed & Residual
106
110
132
120
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,500
1,375
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,130
Ending Stocks
160
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
13.15
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

5. Projected Corn Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Projected Soybean Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

7. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. Corn vs. Wheat
Source: CME Group, 10/19/2011

10. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

11. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

12. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Corn Grind for Ethanol
Source: DOE-EIA

17. Ethanol Margin
Source: CARD

18. Ethanol Margins
Source: CARD

19. Ethanol Blending Advantage

20. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

21. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

22. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

23. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

24. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

25. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

26. Iowa Crop Margins

27. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation
Supply/demand concerns
Smaller than anticipated U.S. crops
Biofuel growth and energy demand
Corn still has the upper hand in the acreage competition
Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.70; Soy $13.15
Futures (as of 10/19/11): Corn $6.23; Soy $11.94
2012/13:
Futures (as of 10/19/11): Corn $5.76; Soy $11.73

28. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: