1. Agenda: Thurs/Fri 1/19-20 Economic Reasoning
Solving the Mystery:
Why Are We a Nation of Couch Potatoes?

2. Journal Entry #2: The Mystery
1) Why do an increasing number of Americans who admire the trim, slender look so often featured in the media, exercise too little and eat too much?
2) Are we really a nation of couch potatoes?
3) Where is the evidence to support this assertion?

3. Obesity Trends Among U.S. Adults Between 1985 and 2010
Definitions:
Obesity: Body Mass Index (BMI) of 30 or higher.
Body Mass Index (BMI): A measure of an adult’s weight in relation to his or her height, specifically the adult’s weight in kilograms divided by the square of his or her height in meters.

4. Obesity Trends Among U.S. Adults Between 1985 and 2010
Source of the data:
The data shown in these maps were collected through CDC’s Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). Each year, state health departments use standard procedures to collect data through a series of telephone interviews with U.S. adults. Height and weight data are self-reported.
Prevalence estimates generated for the maps may vary slightly from those generated for the states by BRFSS ( as slightly different analytic methods are used.

5. In 1990, among states participating in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 10 states had a prevalence of obesity less than 10% and no state had prevalence equal to or greater than 15%.
By 2000, no state had a prevalence of obesity less than 10%, 23 states had a prevalence between 20–24%, and no state had prevalence equal to or greater than 25%.
In 2010, no state had a prevalence of obesity less than 20%. Thirty-six states had a prevalence equal to or greater than 25%; 12 of these states (Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia) had a prevalence equal to or greater than 30%.

6. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1990, 2000, 2010

7. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1985
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14%

8. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1986
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14%

9. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1987
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14%

10. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1988
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14%

11. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1989
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14%

12. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1990
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14%

13. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1991
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19%

14. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1992
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19%

15. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1993
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19%

16. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1994
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19%

17. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1995
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19%

18. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1996
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19%

19. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1997
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% ≥20%

20. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1998
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% ≥20%

21. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1999
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% ≥20%

22. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2000
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% ≥20%

23. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2001
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% ≥25%

24. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2002
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% ≥25%

25. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2003
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% ≥25%

26. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2004
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% ≥25% 27

27. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2005
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% %–29% ≥30% 28

28. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2006
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% %–29% ≥30% 29

29. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2007
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% %–29% ≥30% 30

30. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2008
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% %–29% ≥30% 31

31. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2009
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% %–29% ≥30% 32

32. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2010
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% %–29% ≥30% 33

33. Prevalence of Self-Reported Obesity Among U. S
Prevalence of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory
Definitions
Obesity: Body Mass Index (BMI) of 30 or higher.
Body Mass Index (BMI): A measure of an adult’s weight in relation to his or her height, calculated by using the adult’s weight in kilograms divided by the square of his or her height in meters.

34. Prevalence of Self-Reported Obesity Among U. S
Prevalence of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory
Source of the Data
The data were collected through the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), an ongoing, state-based, telephone interview survey conducted by state health departments with assistance from CDC.
Height and weight data used in the BMI calculations were self-reported.

35. Prevalence of Self-Reported Obesity Among U. S
Prevalence of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory
BRFSS Methodological Changes Started in 2011
New sampling frame that included both landline and cell phone households.
New weighting methodology used to provide a closer match between the sample and the population.

36. Prevalence of Self-Reported Obesity Among U. S
Prevalence of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory
Exclusion Criteria Used Beginning with BRFSS Data
Records with the following were excluded:
Height: <3 feet or ≥8 feet
Weight: <50 pounds or ≥650 pounds
BMI: <12 kg/m2 or ≥100 kg/m2
Pregnant women

37. Prevalence¶ of Self-Reported Obesity Among U. S
Prevalence¶ of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory, BRFSS, 2011
¶ Prevalence estimates reflect BRFSS methodological changes started in These estimates should not be compared to prevalence estimates before 2011.
*Sample size <50 or the relative standard error (dividing the standard error by the prevalence) ≥ 30%.

38. Prevalence¶ of Self-Reported Obesity Among U. S
Prevalence¶ of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory, BRFSS, 2012
¶ Prevalence estimates reflect BRFSS methodological changes started in These estimates should not be
compared to prevalence estimates before 2011.
*Sample size <50 or the relative standard error (dividing the standard error by the prevalence) ≥ 30%.

39. Prevalence¶ of Self-Reported Obesity Among U. S
Prevalence¶ of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory, BRFSS, 2013
¶ Prevalence estimates reflect BRFSS methodological changes started in These estimates should not be
compared to prevalence estimates before 2011.
*Sample size <50 or the relative standard error (dividing the standard error by the prevalence) ≥ 30%.

40. Prevalence¶ of Self-Reported Obesity Among U. S
Prevalence¶ of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory, BRFSS, 2014
¶ Prevalence estimates reflect BRFSS methodological changes started in These estimates should not be
compared to prevalence estimates before 2011.
*Sample size <50 or the relative standard error (dividing the standard error by the prevalence) ≥ 30%.

41. Prevalence¶ of Self-Reported Obesity Among U. S
Prevalence¶ of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory, BRFSS, 2014
State
Prevalence
95% Confidence Interval
Alabama
33.5
(32.1, 35.0)
Alaska
29.7
(27.8, 31.7)
Arizona
28.9
(27.7, 30.2)
Arkansas
35.9
(33.8, 38.0)
California
24.7
(23.5, 25.9)
Colorado
21.3
(20.4, 22.2)
Connecticut
26.3
(24.9, 27.7)
Delaware
30.7
(28.6, 32.8)
District of Columbia
21.7
(19.5, 24.0)
Florida
26.2
(25.0, 27.5)
Georgia
30.5
(28.9, 32.1)
Guam
28.0
(25.6, 30.5)
Hawaii
22.1
(20.7, 23.5)
Idaho
(27.1, 30.8)
Illinois
29.3
(27.6, 31.1)
Indiana
32.7
(31.6, 34.0)
Iowa
30.9
(29.6, 32.3)
Kansas
31.3
(30.3, 32.2)
Kentucky
31.6
(30.2, 33.1)
Louisiana
34.9
(33.4, 36.4)
Maine
28.2
(26.9, 29.5)
Maryland
29.6
(28.1, 31.1)
Massachusetts
23.3
(22.3, 24.4)
Michigan
(29.4, 32.0)
Minnesota
27.6
(26.8, 28.5)
Mississippi
35.5
(33.4, 37.6)
State
Prevalence
95% Confidence Interval
Missouri
30.2
(28.6, 31.9)
Montana
26.4
(24.9, 27.9)
Nebraska
(29.2, 31.3)
Nevada
27.7
(25.4, 30.1)
New Hampshire
27.4
(25.8, 29.1)
New Jersey
26.9
(25.7, 28.1)
New Mexico
28.4
(27.0, 30.0)
New York
27.0
(25.6, 28.5)
North Carolina
29.7
(28.4, 31.0)
North Dakota
32.2
(30.5, 34.0)
Ohio
32.6
(31.2, 34.1)
Oklahoma
33.0
(31.7, 34.3)
Oregon
27.9
(26.3, 29.6)
Pennsylvania
(28.9, 31.4)
Puerto Rico
28.3
(26.8, 29.8)
Rhode Island
(25.4, 28.6)
South Carolina
32.1
(30.9, 33.3)
South Dakota
29.8
(27.9, 31.8)
Tennessee
31.2
(29.3, 33.2)
Texas
31.9
(30.6, 33.3)
Utah
25.7
(24.9, 26.6)
Vermont
24.8
(23.5, 26.1)
Virginia
28.5
(27.2, 29.7)
Washington
27.3
(26.0, 28.5)
West Virginia
35.7
(34.2, 37.2)
Wisconsin
(29.6, 32.8)
Wyoming
29.5
(27.5, 31.5)
¶ Prevalence estimates reflect BRFSS methodological changes started in These estimates should not be compared to prevalence estimates before Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC. .

42. No state had a prevalence of obesity less than 20%.
Prevalence¶ of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory, BRFSS, 2014
Summary
No state had a prevalence of obesity less than 20%.
5 states and the District of Columbia had a prevalence of obesity between 20% and <25%.
23 states, Puerto Rico, and Guam had a prevalence of obesity between 25% and <30%.
19 states had a prevalence of obesity between 30% and <35%.
3 states (Arkansas, Mississippi and West Virginia) had a prevalence of obesity of 35% or greater.
¶ Prevalence estimates reflect BRFSS methodological changes started in These estimates should not be compared to prevalence estimates before 2011.

43. Following this trend what will we look like by the time you are old?

44. A theory is an explanation of how something works, designed to answer a question for which there is no obvious answer.
Create a theory which explains why America is a nation of couch potatoes?

45. Solving the Mystery :
Your ultimate task is to create an economic theory, using economic reasoning, explaining why our nation is getting fatter every year.
With your partner:
Conduct an internet search for clues about the topic.
Create a table in Google Docs with facts and inferences.
Please share your table and resulting theory with me.

46. In your “economic think tanks,” write a theory explaining America’s weight gain.
After writing your theory add at least four pieces of evidence using economic reasoning.

47. Move into pairs and begin working on research and theory development.

48. HOMEWORK: 1) Read Chapter 1 and Complete Q#1- 12 (Review Questions) DUE: Monday 1/23 2) POTUS Briefing DUE: Tues/Wed 1/ Word of your think tank’s theory has reached Washington D.C. The President wants you to advise him on the obesity crisis facing America.
Prepare a 1-2 page briefing for the POTUS showing the crisis from the perspective of an economist.
Have four clear, plausible suggestions to address the problem.
Make sure you: Propose a solution & Use the facts to back your argument. Cite all sources appropriately
If you choose to type your briefing, please print before class. I will not accept any shared documents.