1. 2013 Agricultural Commodity Outlook
Northwest Iowa Young Farmers Meeting
Sioux Center, Iowa
Feb. 11, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

5. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

8. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

10. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
Imports 14 8 28 29
100
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,516
11,869
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,795
4,548
4,450
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,500
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,426
1,387
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,834
1,543
900
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,237
Ending Stocks
632
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.22
7.20
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.6
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,015
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
169
Imports 13 15 14 16 20
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,204
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,615
Seed & Residual
106
110
130 91
120
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,362
1,345
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,080
Ending Stocks
125
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.30
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: Bushels/acre

13. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2012 Yield
Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: Bushels/acre

14. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14

15. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 15 15

16. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Corn Grind for Ethanol

19. Current Corn Futures
6.67
5.30
5.15
Source: CME Group, 2/8/2013

20. Current Soybean Futures
14.00
12.19
11.90
Source: CME Group, 2/8/2013

21. Corn Prices vs. Costs

22. Soy Prices vs. Costs

23. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS
We brought back a lot of acres in Can we hold them in 2013?
Source: USDA-NASS

24. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011
Weather was great for planting in 2012 (just not for producing). To hold acreage we will need great planting weather again.
Top: Planted in 2012
Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

26. Why Crops Fail

27. Iowa Corn Acres Insured in 2012
91% of all Iowa
corn acres are
insured

28. Iowa Soy Acres Insured in 2012
91% of all Iowa
soybean acres
are insured

29. Decision Trees
Source: Wisner, Iowa State University

30. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Soil moisture issues
Biofuel and export strength
Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing
2012/13
USDA
Futures
(2/8/13)
2013/14
Corn
$7.20
$6.67
$5.30
Soybeans
$14.30
$14.00
$12.19
Risk management
Crop insurance
Price protection

31. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: