1. Comprehensive Update of the Arkansas Water Plan
Water Demand
January 2014

2. Vision – WHAT? Manage water sustainably; support economies, protect public health and natural resources, enhance quality of life. HOW? Appropriate policies and best practices; limited regulation, preservation of private property rights.
Mission – comprehensive planning process; conservation, development and protection of the resource for long term sustainable use for health, well being, environmental, and economic benefit

3. The Major Technical and Planning Elements of the Water Plan Update
Final Plan Rulemaking
Nov 2014
Regional and Institutional Setting
Demand Forecast by Sector
Supply
Availability
Identify Gaps between Available Resource
and Demands
Issues and Recommendations to Address Shortfalls between Demand and Supply
Water Needs forecasted to the Year 2050

4. Water Demand Sectors Municipal Self-Supplied Domestic
Self-Supplied Commercial
Industrial
Shale Gas
Mining
Thermoelectric Power
Crop Irrigation
Livestock
Aquaculture
Duck Hunting & Habitat Maintenance

5. Arkansas Statewide Water Demands

6. Arkansas Statewide Water Demands without Crop Irrigation

7. Total Water Demands by Water Planning Region

8. Total Water Demands by Water Planning Region without Crop Irrigation

9. Basis of Demand Projections
Municipal; Self-supplied Domestic; Self-supplied Commercial
County population growth rate
Industrial; Mining
Employment growth rate
Shale Gas
Work group estimates
Thermoelectric Power
Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Agency projections of power generation
Crop Irrigation
County-level trends in irrigated acres by crop type
Livestock
USDA national livestock projections growth rates
Aquaculture; Duck Habitat
Remain constant at present levels

10. Demand Technical Work Group
Full Demand Work Group meeting December 17, 2012
Work Group members from each of the demand sectors have completed conference call(s) and had updates and revisions to the initial methodologies
Data availability did results in some “minor” changes to the original approach:
Comments and additional research modified the driver (rate and cause of growth) or the water use factor (water use per “unit”)
Different data sets have different values for the same or similar years
Not all data sets have information for the years desired

11. Water Demand Sector Municipal Self-Supplied Domestic
Self-Supplied Commercial

12. Municipally-Supplied Demand Forecast Results: Statewide
Steady increase in municipally-supplied water demands through 2050
Highest growth - Woods & Poole population projection
Lowest growth – Arkansas Natural Resources Commission (ANRC) population projection
2050 water demands range from 449 mgd to 555 mgd
Passive conservation reduces demand by 6% in 2050
Base Year to 2050 Percent Growth
ANRC: 13%
AIEA: 31%
Woods & Poole: 40%

13. County Population Projections: Arkansas Institute for Economic Advancement (AIEA)Scenario

14. Municipal Water Demands by Water Planning Region (AIEA with Conservation)

15. Self-Supplied Domestic
Residential water users not connected to a municipal system (people on individual wells)
About 5% of the State’s population
Demand driven by population
USGS 2010 Report - self-supplied domestic gpcd values range from 80.0 to 98.2 and are different for each county
Demand decline due to projected population decrease in counties with self-supplied domestic and passive conservation savings
2050 water demands range from 12.3 mgd to 15.3 mgd

16. Self-Supplied Domestic Demand by Region

17. Self-Supplied Commercial Water Demand Forecast

18. Self-Supplied Commercial Demand by Region

19. Water Demand Sector
Thermoelectric Power
Industrial
Mining
Shale Gas

20. Thermoelectric Energy Forecast

21. Thermoelectric Water Demand Forecast Results: Comparison of Withdrawals & Consumption
About 99.7% of withdrawals for thermoelectric power generation are from surface water sources
0.3% are small water users typically natural gas with combustion turbine

22. Thermoelectric Water Demand by Region

23. Industrial Water Demand Forecast: Results
Demand include both municipally-supplied and self-supplied industrial demands
Industrial water demands decrease by 31% from Base Year to 2050
Decrease attributed to projected decline in manufacturing employment
Demand declines in nearly all counties
↓ 31%

24. Industrial Water Demand by Region

25. Mining Water Demand Forecast: Results
Forecast includes self-supplied mining demands and municipal water deliveries to mining customers
Mining water demands forecasted to increase by 132% from the base year to 2050
Increase in demand is driven by projected increase in mining employment in those counties with base year mining water demands
Silica sand, construction sand & gravel, and crushed stone mining are the primary water-using mineral resources in the state
Woods Poole
Dept. of Workforce Services

26. Mining Water Demand by Region

27. Shale Gas Water Demands by Water Planning Region

28. Water Demand Sectors Livestock Aquaculture
Crop Irrigation
Livestock
Aquaculture
Duck Hunting & Habitat Maintenance

29. Statewide Forecast of Irrigated Acreage

30. Statewide Irrigation Forecast in Acre-Feet per Year (AFY)
14% increase from [9.88 million AFY to million AFY]
99% of growth experienced by 2030

31. Crop Irrigation Water Demands by Water Planning Region

32. Livestock Water Demand Forecast
34% Groundwater
66% Surface Water
Growth rate
Chickens = 14%
Beef Cattle = 5%
Hogs and pigs = 11%
Dairy cows = decrease a very minor percent

33. Livestock Water Demand by Water Planning Region

34. Aquaculture Water Demand Forecast: Results
Total base year demands are mgd
About half is minnow production
By regulation, all aquaculture water comes from groundwater sources

35. Aquaculture Water Demand by Region

36. Duck Hunting & Habitat Maintenance: Forecast
Duck Hunting Clubs:
64% surface water
36% groundwater
Habitat maintenance:
98% surface water
2% groundwater
Crop irrigation:
26% surface water
74% groundwater
Overall:
60% surface water
40% groundwater and

37. Duck Hunting & Habitat Maintenance Water Demands by Water Planning Region

38. Demand Report Available on the Website
Visit the Water Plan Website at:
ARWaterPlan.Arkansas.gov
Reports (left hand side)
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