1. Way Forward on Results Monitoring DPG 6 November 2007 Johannes Hoogeveen Poverty Monitoring Group

2. Why Monitor Results? Performance Monitoring Performance Monitoring Have results been achieved?Have results been achieved? Was value for money delivered?Was value for money delivered? Policy design and planning Policy design and planning Without an accurate understanding of reality it is not possible to plan.Without an accurate understanding of reality it is not possible to plan. The use of data for performance monitoring may jeopardize the accuracy with which it reality. The use of data for performance monitoring may jeopardize the accuracy with which it reality. Already there are instances where there seems to be a disconnect between reality and official statistics.Already there are instances where there seems to be a disconnect between reality and official statistics.

3. Results and the MKUKUTA Monitoring System MKUKUTA Monitoring System has filled an important information gap that existed until 2001 MKUKUTA Monitoring System has filled an important information gap that existed until 2001 Major surveys have been done HBS, LFS, DHS, THIS, Ag. Census, VOP HBS, LFS, DHS, THIS, Ag. Census, VOP Monitoring and Analysis have improved MKUKUTA indicators MKUKUTA indicators MAIR and PHDR reports MAIR and PHDR reports Communications have improved RAWG open seminars, Poverty Policy Week RAWG open seminars, Poverty Policy Week Despite some progress, the information to adequately inform decision making, to confidently report about progress and to monitor service delivery is still absent.

4. Reasons for weak results performance LGA/MDA Data Demand for and use of data remains low, especially in LGAs/MDAs. Demand for and use of data remains low, especially in LGAs/MDAs. LGA/MDA data production and reporting systems remain weak. LGA/MDA data production and reporting systems remain weak. National Data Surveys report outcomes infrequently, too late and at high cost. Surveys report outcomes infrequently, too late and at high cost. Increased focus on economic and spatial statistics needed. Increased focus on economic and spatial statistics needed. MKUKUTA Monitoring System The system is bureaucratic, was captured and is unable to deliver value for money. The system is bureaucratic, was captured and is unable to deliver value for money. MMS is not integrated with national system (donor driven?) MMS is not integrated with national system (donor driven?)

5. Two initiatives provide excellent opportunities to improve results monitoring Opportunity I: Harmonized Performance Reporting Task Force to Harmonize Mkukuta, Strategic Planning and MTEF has made concrete proposals to rationalize reporting. Task Force to Harmonize Mkukuta, Strategic Planning and MTEF has made concrete proposals to rationalize reporting. MoF, MPEE, PO-PSM, PMO-RALG, NAO, PMO participate in Task Force MoF, MPEE, PO-PSM, PMO-RALG, NAO, PMO participate in Task Force Budget guidelines 2007 obliges every institution to prepare quarterly progress reports, annual performance reports and 3- annual outcome reports Budget guidelines 2007 obliges every institution to prepare quarterly progress reports, annual performance reports and 3- annual outcome reports These reports (intend to) replace existing reports to MoF, MPEE, CCM, Sector Reviews etc. These reports (intend to) replace existing reports to MoF, MPEE, CCM, Sector Reviews etc.

6. Key issues: How to ensure that the performance reports meet DP needs? How to how to ensure that performance reports reflect reality accurately?

7. Opportunity II Tanzania Statistical Master Plan (TSMP) National Bureau of Statistics leads efforts to prepare a national statistical strategy cover NBS, MDAs and LGAs National Bureau of Statistics leads efforts to prepare a national statistical strategy cover NBS, MDAs and LGAs Areas of Focus Areas of Focus Economic statisticsEconomic statistics Spatial statisticsSpatial statistics Routine data systems in MDAs and LGAsRoutine data systems in MDAs and LGAs TSMP also incorporates strategies to: TSMP also incorporates strategies to: Align staff incentives with data productionAlign staff incentives with data production Improve office environmentImprove office environment Adjust Statistics ActAdjust Statistics Act Rationalize the survey calendarRationalize the survey calendar Improved quality controlImproved quality control NBS can support MDAs and LGAs to improve their stats. production. Performance reports will provide better incentives for improved data production and reporting. Yet, sector specialists will need to promote the quality of statistics and reporting.

8. Two Quick Wins of TSMP should be embraced by DPs immediately Economic Statistics Economic Statistics Review data production systemsReview data production systems Use 2007 HBS to rebase CPI and the National Accounts/GDPUse 2007 HBS to rebase CPI and the National Accounts/GDP National Panel Survey (NPS) National Panel Survey (NPS) Collect outcome indicators (such as poverty; enrollment; access to infrastructure; water) for PAF and MKUKUTA annuallyCollect outcome indicators (such as poverty; enrollment; access to infrastructure; water) for PAF and MKUKUTA annually Validate routine dataValidate routine data Understand income dynamicsUnderstand income dynamics With relatively small investments, economic statistics can be greatly improved.

9. National Panel Survey Panel survey is included in the MKUKUTA calendar Panel survey is included in the MKUKUTA calendar NPS is overseen by a Technical Committee led by NBS.NPS is overseen by a Technical Committee led by NBS. Survey implementation will be outsourced.Survey implementation will be outsourced. NBS will need TA to finalize and manage the NPS.NBS will need TA to finalize and manage the NPS. The NPS is on a critical path. To deliver annual outcome indicators following HBS 2007, the survey needs to be fielded by May 2008. The NPS is on a critical path. To deliver annual outcome indicators following HBS 2007, the survey needs to be fielded by May 2008. World Bank can provide TA.World Bank can provide TA. Addition resources are needed for first round.Addition resources are needed for first round. Funding needs to be guaranteed for the next 5 survey roundsFunding needs to be guaranteed for the next 5 survey rounds

10. Areas for follow up Performance Reporting DPG Sector Working Groups to ensure that performance reports reflect DP needs and are of good quality. Statistics Ensure complementary funding ($ 4-500,000) asap and quarantee funding for at least next 5 years ($ 7-800,000 annum). Data and reporting that is reliable Institutionalize an independent results monitor, within or outside GoTInstitutionalize an independent results monitor, within or outside GoT Development Partners Use division of Labor to bring expertise in results monitoring (statistics and reporting)

11. Without reliable statistics we do not know whether their lives improve