1. Engagement with Energy in the Future
Russell Fowler – National Grid
BESST/metnet/Institute of Directors: Breakfast Meeting
25th February 2015

2. Overview National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios Why we do it
High level process
Background to 2014 scenarios
Our 2014 scenarios

3. Future Energy Scenarios
Annual publication of credible future energy scenarios – out to 2015
Driven by an annual consultation process: our stakeholders’ views are key to shaping our scenarios
Political & Economic background
Government Targets & Policy
Heat, consumer, lighting
Power demand
Power supply
Gas demand
Gas supply

4. Why do we do it?
Identify potential gas and electricity network investment requirements
Other supply and demand analyses
Feeds into Electricity Market Reform analysis
Informing the future of energy debate

5. We follow an annual cycle of scenario development
Our stakeholder engagement allows us to listen to your views, which are vital to our outputs. They drive our processes and inform both our scenarios and our consultation process.
Your Views
An axiom is a premise or starting point of reasoning. The axioms that we produce are a reflection pf the stakeholder feedback that we receive through our consultation process. These axioms influence our modelling.
Axioms
The scenarios are the end result and a vision of the future that stakeholders have informed. The publication of the Future Energy Scenarios document marks the start of our annual process and the continuation of our stakeholder consultation.
Future Energy Scenarios
Once our axioms have been defined, they underpin our detailed modelling and drive our specific electricity and gas, demand and supply scenarios.
Modelling

6. Our 2014 Future Energy Scenarios
Low Carbon
Life
Affordability
Less money
More money
Gone Green No
Progression
Slow
Progression
Sustainability
Less emphasis
More emphasis

7. No Progression Economic: Slower economic recovery
Political: Inconsistent statements and investor uncertainty
Technological: Gas over renewable generation, low innovation
Social: Low energy efficiency, low uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumps
Environmental: Targets likely to be missed, no new targets introduced

8. Slow Progression Economic: Slower economic recovery
Political: Political will, but financial constraints prevent delivery
Technological: Renewables over low carbon generation, low innovation
Social: Society engaged, high energy efficiency, low uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumps
Environmental: Renewables target missed, new European targets introduced

9. Low Carbon Life Economic: Growing economy
Political: Short term volatility but long term consensus around decarbonisation
Technological: Renewable generation at local level, high innovation
Social: High uptake of electric vehicles, low energy efficiency, ‘going green’ not a conscious decision
Environmental: Carbon target likely to be hit, no new targets introduced

10. Gone Green Economic: Growing economy
Political: European harmonisation, long term certainty
Technological: High renewable generation, high innovation
Social: Society engaged, high energy efficiency, high uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumps
Environmental: All targets hit, including new European targets post 2020

11. Example findings

12. Electricity Demand in Lighting
Million bulbs
12% of residential demand | much of it peaky | TVs
Lighting demand has dropped by ~4GWH since 2007 ; this is ½ the domestic demand reduction since then
Legislation was the major driver but consumer preference in the domestic arena is a significant factor
Halogen demand increasing from 4TWh to 7TWh between 2009 and 2012 as consumers adopt spot lighting and replace single down-lighters with multiple halogens
LEDs could fill this role…
EU directive is forcing out thirsty halogens

13. Peak demand reduction through smart meters
“Between 13% and 50% of households reduce their peak electricity demand by 5%”

14. Residential Energy SP Efficiencies balance growth Uptake of Heat Pumps
Gone Green
Electrification of transport SP

15. Coal Power Station capacity
The increase in gas fired plant in order to compensate for coal closure profile
Aggressive closure profile across all scenarios with GG and SP at lower end
Minimal amount of plant remaining is assumed to comply with IED or be converting to CCS
Early IED opt out

16. Security of supply outlook
Mid decade products SBR and DSBR to address
LOLE
EMR Capacity mechanism in place
Explain LOLE
What other standards are

17. Gas Supply - No Progression

18. Any Questions

19. Contacts Follow the discussion on Twitter #ukenergy
Future Energy Scenarios:
General Future Energy Scenarios Contact:
My Contact: