1. Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin Energy Tradeoffs Oil & Money 2011

2. ©CEE/BEG-UT, 2 Change in shares of net generation, 1996-2010, % (2010 net generation share, %) 10 (23)1 (20)2 (4)0 (0) -8 (44)-1 (1)-3 (7)

3. ©CEE/BEG-UT, 3 CEE Model (cents/kWh) Capital and O&M costs are based on U.S. EIAs Nov 2010 report: http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/beck_plantcosts/index.html http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/beck_plantcosts/index.html NOTE: Excludes grid costs

4. ©CEE/BEG-UT, 4 CEE Approach (Natural Gas) Assessment of probabilities and time frames for each factor Evaluation of second or higher order drivers (e.g., RPS mandates, tax credits, feed-in-tariffs, coal exports, nuclear policies and finance, consumer behavior, macroeconomics & demographics)

5. ©CEE/BEG-UT, 5 An Energy Web Increasingly Better

6. ©CEE/BEG-UT, 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 Impact (Scale) Energy Security Safety Reliability Market Friendly Envt (Air) Envt (Land, Water) GHG (Climate) An Energy Web

7. ©CEE/BEG-UT, 7 What are YOUR scores?

8. ©CEE/BEG-UT, 8

9. ©CEE/BEG-UT, 9

10. ©CEE/BEG-UT, 10