1. Predictors
Observed rainfall up to May.
Predicted JJA rainfall forecast in May
ECHAM 4.5 hindcast psst ( ).
Predictands
Simulated wheat yield.
JJASO rainfall.
Cross-validation (34 years available)
Select 30 years for training.
2 independent years for model selection.
2 independent years for skill estimate.
200 random selections.

2. Predictor:
JJA precip forecast May
1 EOF
Predictand:
Shire wheat yield
1 EOF
Cross-validated
Anomaly correlation
Time-series
(no CV)

3. Predictor:
JJA precip forecast May
1 EOF
Predictand:
Shire wheat yield
1 EOF
Cross-validated
Anomaly correlation
Time-series
(no CV)

4. Predictor:
JJA precip forecast May
1 EOF
Predictand:
Shire rainfall
2 EOFs
Cross-validated
Anomaly correlation
Time-series
(no CV)