1. HIV prevalence in Jakarta, Indonesia, with and without IDUs Actual data to 2003, and projections with behaviour unchanged from 2003 levels
Most sexual infections in Jakarta would never have occurred
if there had not been a “seed” infection transmitted through drug injection
120000
108,296
100000
80000
Sexual infections resulting from a chain of infection originating with a needle
Cumulative number of HIV infections
60000
40000
35,850
20000
2,049
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
HIV infections if nothing changes
HIV infections in IDUs if nothing changes
HIV infections if there were no IDU epidemic
Source: Elizabeth Pisani, using Asian Epidemic Model
Fig 40. AIDS in Asia, Face the Facts MAP Report