1. Foundations for making smart decisions
Reading 24 Block 3
Keeney, R.L.
Dr.A.HIndieh

2. Making good decisions
Making good decisions is the fundamental to the success of every engineer . it is almost truism that the industrial engineer who routinely makes good decisions .
What tools does the profession offer to guide us in decision – making ? they tend to focus on the mathematical aspects of models that are of greatest interest to quantitative .
The fact is that no quantitative model can be developed or used without a qualitative foundation that describes what is important to include in the quantitative model , this article discusses how to develop a quality foundation for engineering decision
Dr.A.HIndieh

3. Making informed decision Eight keys elements for making smart choices
Dr.A.HIndieh

4. Making informed decision
The five element s(PROACT) serving as a reminder elements to be proactive , it constitute the core of our way of thoughts ,The remaining elements are basic notions to industrial engineering .
That most practical problems can be analyzed without going through the full gamut of the eight elements. Often clear thinking on one element may resolve the decision complete , sometimes you just need to understand your objectives, create the alternative , get your tradeoffs straight , or know what the chances of some events really are. Then you can make a smart choices and move on.
When either objectives and alternative are clearly stated and complete , many decisions can be resolved without the need for further analysis, when they are inadequate , the will led to a poor decision.
Dr.A.HIndieh

5. Specifying and organizing objectives
Decision maker often don't specify their objectives clearly and fully , As a result they fail to get where they want to go , this occurs for three reasons :-
First:- many people spend too little time and effort on the task of specifying objectives , they feel they already know what they want and needs .
Second :- getting it right isn't easy, objectives don't just pop up in nice neat lists, while you might think you know what you want , some of the most important objectives may not be at all obvious.
Third :- decision –makers often take too narrow a focus , their list of objectives is limited, omitting important considerations that become apparent only after they have made a decision..
Dr.A.HIndieh

6. Specifying and organizing objectives Steps to Identifying and organizing objectives :-
Write down all the concerns you want to address through your decision .
Convert you general concerns into succinct ( brief) objective.
Separate ends from means to establish your fundamental objectives ., the best way to do that ask why and keep asking why.
Fundamental objectives constitute the broadest objectives directly influenced by your decision alternatives, only fundamental objectives should be used to evaluate and compare alternative.
Means objectives represent way stations in the progress toward a fundamental objectives , each means objective can serve as a stimulus for generating alternative and can deepen your understanding of your decision problem .
Separating means and fundamental objective is critical because both kinds of objectives play important but different roles in the decision making process.
Dr.A.HIndieh

7. Specifying and organizing objectives Steps to Identifying and organizing objectives :-
4. For each fundamental objective ask " what do I really mean by this? Asking What? Enables you to identify the components of your objectives and better understanding .
5. Test your objectives to see if they capture your interests, use your list to evaluate several potential alternative, asking yourself if you would be comfortable living with the resulting choices, if not, reexamine them.
Dr.A.HIndieh

8. Creating alternative
The alternatives represent the rang of potential choices you’ll have for pursuing your objectives , because of the central important of alternatives , you need to establish a high standard for them. two important points should be kept in mind :-
You can never choose an alternative you have not considered .
No matter how many alternatives you have , your chosen alternative can be no better than the best of lot.
Dr.A.HIndieh

9. Creating alternative Common Pitfalls :-
One of the most common pitfalls is choosing the same alternative beckons as the essay course ,Step back and develop alternative that reflect original thinking and different perspectives.
Many poor choices result from falling back on default alternative.
Choosing the first possible solution
Dr.A.HIndieh

10. Creating alternative Techniques to generate set of alternatives
Use your objectives and ask HOW? Since objectives drive decisions ,
Challenge constraints , in our thinking about many decision problems , we use constraints that limit our alternative.
Unconventional alternatives is to set targets that seem beyond reach, High aspiration force you to think in entirely new ways rather than sliding by with modest changes to the status quo.
Do your own thinking first, before consulting others about alternatives , give your own mind free reign .
Learn from experience, you shouldn’t let yourself be constrained by history, but you should certainly try to learn from it.
Dr.A.HIndieh

11. A professional opportunity
Industrial engineers have had the opportunity to develop their decision – making skills in the manner that:-
Learn other skills such as tines , golf …
Break our subject of interest into element.
Next learn how to execute each element and practice frequently in simple situations,
Then try to integrate these elements in interesting situations.
Dr.A.HIndieh