1. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station EMDS 3.0 a modeling framework for coping with complexity in ecosystem assessment and environmental planning Keith Reynolds Pacific Northwest Research Station

2. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Basics Version 3.0 completed in February 2002 Version 3.0 completed in February 2002 Funding Funding Natural Resource Information System, Tools Group (USDA Forest Service Washington Office) Natural Resource Information System, Tools Group (USDA Forest Service Washington Office) System design System design Pacific Northwest Research Station Pacific Northwest Research Station Implementation Implementation Environmental Systems Research Institute as the primary contractor Environmental Systems Research Institute as the primary contractor

3. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Project support Version 1, 1997 Version 1, 1997 Northwest Forest Plan Northwest Forest Plan Version 2, 1998 Version 2, 1998 Northwest Forest Plan Northwest Forest Plan EPA OR&D EPA OR&D USFS EM (WO) USFS EM (WO) Version 3, 2002 Version 3, 2002 Natural Resource Information System, Tools Group (WO) Natural Resource Information System, Tools Group (WO)

4. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Version 3.0 system developers PNW Station PNW Station System design & project oversight System design & project oversight ESRI, primary contractor ESRI, primary contractor ArcGIS implementation ArcGIS implementation Rules of Thumb, Inc. Rules of Thumb, Inc. NetWeaver logic engine and OCX NetWeaver logic engine and OCX InfoHarvest, Inc. InfoHarvest, Inc. Priority Analyst engine and OCX Priority Analyst engine and OCX

5. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Version 3.0 design objectives 1. Improve the efficiency with which landscape evaluation is conducted a) Optimize use of information 2. Improve the quality of evaluation products a) More comprehensive analysis b) Better integration of diverse topics 3. Integrated support for planning

6. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Integrated evaluation and planning Evaluation within scale Evaluation within scale Concurrent evaluation of possibly numerous states and processes within a single analysis Concurrent evaluation of possibly numerous states and processes within a single analysis Across scale Across scale Explicit linkage of evaluations across spatial scales Explicit linkage of evaluations across spatial scales Comparing evaluations over time Comparing evaluations over time Across phases of adaptive management Across phases of adaptive management Going from landscape evaluation to planning Going from landscape evaluation to planning

7. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station EMDS in adaptive management

8. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Version 3.0 implementation EMDS 3.0 is an ArcMap extension (ArcGIS 8.x) EMDS 3.0 is an ArcMap extension (ArcGIS 8.x) Windows NT 4.0, 2000, XP Windows NT 4.0, 2000, XP COM-based COM-based Major components Major components Project environment (core) Project environment (core) Logic engine (logic-based evaluation) Logic engine (logic-based evaluation) Hotlink tool (intuitive graphic explanation) Hotlink tool (intuitive graphic explanation) Data Acquisition Manager (priority of missing data) Data Acquisition Manager (priority of missing data) Priority Analyst (priority setting in planning) Priority Analyst (priority setting in planning)

9. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Logic models A form of meta database A form of meta database A formal logical representation of how to evaluate information A formal logical representation of how to evaluate information Networks of interrelated topics Networks of interrelated topics Mental map Mental map

10. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Logic models: forms of uncertainty Probabilistic uncertainty Probabilistic uncertainty Uncertainty of events Uncertainty of events Linguistic uncertainty Linguistic uncertainty Uncertainty about the definition of events Uncertainty about the definition of events Vagueness or imprecision Vagueness or imprecision A proposition is the smallest unit of thought to which one can assign a measure of truth (strength of evidence) A proposition is the smallest unit of thought to which one can assign a measure of truth (strength of evidence) SE: a measure that quantifies the degree of support for a proposition provided by its premises SE: a measure that quantifies the degree of support for a proposition provided by its premises

11. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Knowledge bases: strength of evidence

12. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Project environment NetWeaver Developer (Rules of Thumb) and Criterium DecisionPlus (InfoHarvest) are external development tools needed to create logic models and decision models, respectively. Rules of ThumbInfoHarvestRules of ThumbInfoHarvest

13. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Project environment interface Create and manage EMDS projects. Create and manage EMDS projects. View and edit EMDS projects notes (meta data). View and edit EMDS projects notes (meta data). Select GIS layers to include in an assessment Select GIS layers to include in an assessment Define a Study Area. Define a Study Area. Select a logic model. Select a logic model. Select topics for evaluation. Select topics for evaluation. Evaluate an analysis or scenario. Evaluate an analysis or scenario. Review results of an analysis or scenario in maps, tables, and graphs. Review results of an analysis or scenario in maps, tables, and graphs. Launch Data Acquisition Manager (DAM), Hotlink Browser, and Priority Analyst. Launch Data Acquisition Manager (DAM), Hotlink Browser, and Priority Analyst.

14. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Project structure Project hierarchy Project hierarchy Multiple scales of assessment Multiple scales of assessment Multiple analyses within assessments Multiple analyses within assessments Multiple scenarios within analyses Multiple scenarios within analyses The hierarchy is represented in a tree view. The hierarchy is represented in a tree view.

15. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station NetWeaver logic engine Evaluations of landscape condition performed with this engine. Evaluations of landscape condition performed with this engine. Data input to the engine is mediated by the EMDS Project Environment. Data input to the engine is mediated by the EMDS Project Environment. The engine The engine supports design of logic specifications for the types of large, complex, and abstract problems typically posed by ecosystem management, supports design of logic specifications for the types of large, complex, and abstract problems typically posed by ecosystem management, evaluates data against a knowledge base that provides a formal specification for interpretation of data, and evaluates data against a knowledge base that provides a formal specification for interpretation of data, and allows partial evaluations of ecosystem states and processes based on available information. allows partial evaluations of ecosystem states and processes based on available information. Ideal for use in landscape evaluation where data are often incomplete. Ideal for use in landscape evaluation where data are often incomplete.

16. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Dealing with missing data Data are treated as evidence. Data are treated as evidence. Missing data are treated as lack of evidence. Missing data are treated as lack of evidence. The logic engine can evaluate the influence of missing information on the logical completeness of an analysis. The logic engine can evaluate the influence of missing information on the logical completeness of an analysis.influence of missing informationinfluence of missing information One component for determining priority of missing data. One component for determining priority of missing data.

17. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Map products Basic EMDS output is maps. Basic EMDS output is maps. Symbology displays strength of evidence for a conclusion. Symbology displays strength of evidence for a conclusion. Advantage of a logic- based solution. Advantage of a logic- based solution. Not a black box. Not a black box.

18. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Hotlink browser: explaining results Used to view the evaluated state of a logic model for a selected map feature. Used to view the evaluated state of a logic model for a selected map feature. The graphic display of the evaluated state of a knowledge base is relatively intuitive. The graphic display of the evaluated state of a knowledge base is relatively intuitive. Provides a detailed explanation of the derivation of conclusions. Provides a detailed explanation of the derivation of conclusions. Valuable to EMDS developers, users, and the general public Valuable to EMDS developers, users, and the general public

19. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Data Acquisition Manager (DAM) Data gaps are common in early stages of landscape evaluation. Data gaps are common in early stages of landscape evaluation. Influence of missing information is very dynamic. Influence of missing information is very dynamic. The DAM The DAM summarizes the influence of missing information, given the information that is currently available, and summarizes the influence of missing information, given the information that is currently available, and assists with establishing priorities for obtaining missing data to improve the logical completeness of an analysis in the most efficient way. assists with establishing priorities for obtaining missing data to improve the logical completeness of an analysis in the most efficient way.

20. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Priority Analyst (PA) PA is a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) component PA is a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) component Assists in ranking landscape elements, based on how well each rates against a set of decision criteria. Assists in ranking landscape elements, based on how well each rates against a set of decision criteria. Uses output from the landscape evaluation and a decision model. Uses output from the landscape evaluation and a decision model. Rates landscape elements with respect to Rates landscape elements with respect to their condition, and their condition, and factors related to the feasibility and efficacy of management. factors related to the feasibility and efficacy of management.

21. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Priority analyst output Aspatial output Spatial output

22. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Priority analyst diagnostics How primary criteria in a decision model contribute to the total priority score for a watershed. In this example, a 13.4% change in the weight on the WS condition criterion would lead to a change in ordering of priorities.

23. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Linking multiple spatial scales Basic approach: summarize information from one scale in a manner that makes the information applicable at another scale. Basic approach: summarize information from one scale in a manner that makes the information applicable at another scale. In general, some type of transformation of information is needed when moving information from one scale of evaluation to the next. In general, some type of transformation of information is needed when moving information from one scale of evaluation to the next.

24. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Classic planning process Evaluate current condition Generate alternatives Evaluate alternatives Implement selected alternative ID key questions and data needs Each planning cycle is more or less independent of the previous one.

25. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Adaptive planning Evaluate current condition Generate alternatives Evaluate alternatives Implement selected alternative ID key questions and data needs Evaluate implementation Revise implementation Plan is evaluated at shorter intervals than in classic model, allowing incremental adjustments that may extend life of plan.

26. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Adaptive, coherent planning (EMS, ISO 14001) Evaluation with single model Generate alternatives Implement selected alternative ID key questions and data needs Revise implementation Unified approach to evaluation adds coherence through institutional memory. Applies to initial condition, alternatives, and plan performance.

27. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station A single unified model for planning 1. Assess current condition Context for planning (where are we starting from?) Context for planning (where are we starting from?) 2. Evaluate alternative strategies A framework for synthesizing results of projections A framework for synthesizing results of projections Harvest scheduling, vegetation modeling, etc. Harvest scheduling, vegetation modeling, etc. 3. Priority Analyst for more tactical decisions Which activities to do where? Which activities to do where? 4. Evaluate plan implementation How well is the plan working? How well is the plan working?

28. USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station Contact information Phone: +01-541-750-7434 Phone: +01-541-750-7434 Email: kreynolds@fs.fed.us Email: kreynolds@fs.fed.uskreynolds@fs.fed.us Website: www.fsl.orst.edu/emds Website: www.fsl.orst.edu/emds