1. P(benchange) – (1-P)(costfailed change) > benstatusquo
Will (Governance) Reform proceed?
BENEFITS TO STAKEHOLDERS BENEFITS TO STAKEHOLDERS
OF CHANGE OF STATUS QUO
PROBABILITY
OF SUCCESS
DESIGN OF
REFORM
POLITICS, SOCIETY AND INSTITUTIONS

2. POLITICAL DRIVERS OF REFORM
Exogenous variables
Institutional depth: longevity, predictability, legitimacy, flexibility
Composition of governing elites: influence of property-owning or ethnic elites
Diversity of civil society
Characteristics of political parties
Reform design options
Sequencing, timing and pace of reform
Monitorability of reform
Mixed (exogenous/design)
Technical capacity of bureaucracy
Extent of decentralization