1. Dr. Steven Koonin: “Energy Trends and Technologies”
Matthew Nichols
April 25, 2012
Physics H190

2. The Mysterious Steven Koonin
Born in Brooklyn, NY
B.S. in physics from Caltech (1972)
PhD in theoretical physics from MIT (1975)
Professor at Caltech ( )
Studied theoretical nuclear many body physics and computational physics
Was chief scientist at BP: responsible for BPs long range technology plans

3. Energy Trends and Technologies
It’s not just about new technology
Energy so pervasive in society that several factors must be considered including the economics, politics, and cultural context
Once these factors are considered, then one can talk about the technology

4. Drivers of the Energy Future
GDP & pop. growth
urbanization
Significant resources
Non-conventionals
Demand Growth
Supply Challenges
Technology and policy
Local pollution
Climate change
Dislocation of resources
Import dependence
Environmental Impacts
Security
of Supply

5. Growth in Energy Demand Due to Economic ActivityUS
Australia
Russia
France
Japan UK
S. Korea
Ireland
Malaysia
Greece
Mexico
China
Brazil
India

6. Energy Demand Breakdown vs. Time
BNBOE=Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent
Global Energy Demand Growth by Sector ( )
Energy Demand (bnboe)
1 BNBOE = 6.11x1018 Joules
Key:
- transport
- power
- industry
- other sectors
Notes: 1. Power includes heat generated at power plants
2. Other sectors includes residential, agricultural and service
Source: IEA WEO 2004

7. Energy Supply There are significant resources in the ground
The world is not running out of energy any time soon
However, a rise in unconventional sources of energy is expected

8. Sources of Energy in the US since 1850
Source: EIA

9. Sources of Energy: Global Scale
Nuclear
Hydro
Oil
Oil
Coal
Coal
Gas
Natural gas
Hydro
Nuclear

10. Projection of Primary Energy Sources
’04 – ’30 Annual Growth Rate (%)
6.5
1.3
2.0
0.7
2.0
1.3
1.8
Note: ‘Other renewables’ include geothermal, solar, wind, tide and wave energy for electricity generation
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 (Reference Case)

11. Reserves & Resources (bnboe)
Fossil Fuel Supply
Yet to Find
Unconventional
Unconventional
Reserves & Resources (bnboe)
R/P Ratio
164 yrs.
R/P Ratio
41 yrs.
R/P Ratio
67 yrs.
Source: World Energy Assessment 2001, HIS, WoodMackenzie, BP Stat Review 2005, BP estimates

12. How Much Oil is Available and at What Price?
Availability of oil resources as a function of economic price
Source: IEA (2005)

13. Security of Supply
There is a dislocation of resources around the globe: the oil and gas are in the ground not where the main consumers of the product are
Thus the dislocation leads to necessary trade, and a reliance by the consuming countries on the stability and security of distant oil/gas sources

14. Dislocation of Fossil Fuel Sources from their Consumers
ROW = Rest of World
Source: BP Statistical Review 2006

15. Conclusions about Energy Supply Dislocation
The oil is where the people ARE NOT and the coal is where the people ARE
As countries become increasingly concerned about supply issues, they will turn increasingly to coal (e.g. China and partially the U.S.)

16. Environmental Impacts: Local Pollution and Climate Change
Local pollution is not so problematic: the technology exists and is available at cost
He gives LA as an example, how the local pollution has improved over the past few years
As countries/governments get more concerned they will be more willing to invest in the available technology to remove the local pollution.
Climate change is more problematic
Evidence implies CO2 concentration is rising due to fossil fuel use (concentration increases by ~2 PPM a year)
Many say that 2X the pre industrial level of CO2 (550 ppm) is a widely discussed stabilization target (beyond which it will exert a dangerous influence on the climate system

17. Things to Know About CO2 In the Atmosphere in Order to Solve Problem
Emissions
Concentration
The lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is about 1000 years
About half of what we put up there stays up there
A bend in the emissions graph will just delay the time that we cross the dangerous CO2 level threshold
Rule of thumb: every 10 percent reduction in emissions buys you about 7 years before reaching the max
We need to reduce emissions by a factor of two from current levels to remain stable at the 550 ppm level, and this in the face of doubling the demand of energy by the middle of the century, so we need to cut the common intensity of our energy system by a factor of four

18. Social Barriers to Emission Reductions
Climate threat is intangible and diffuse; can be obscured by natural variability
It’s difficult to attribute things to climate change phenomena. It’s hard to make the climate change discussion real for people
contrast ozone, air pollution
Energy is at the heart of economic activity
CO2 timescales are poorly matched to the political process
Buildup and lifetime are centennial scale
Energy infrastructure takes decades to replace
Power plants being planned now will be emitting in 2050
Autos last 20 years; buildings 100 years
Political cycle is ~6 years; news cycle ~1 day
There will be inevitable distractions
a few years of cooling
economic downturns
unforeseen expenses (e.g., Iraq, tsunamis, …)
Emissions, economics, and the priority of the threat vary greatly around the world

19. Emissions Facts
21st Century emissions from the Developing World (DW) will be more important than those from the Industrialized World (IW)
DW emissions growing at 2.8% vs. IW growing at 1.2%
DW will surpass IW during
Sobering facts
When DW ~ IW, each 10% reduction in IW emissions is compensated by < 4 years of DW growth
If China’s (or India’s) per capita emissions were those of Japan, global emissions would be 40% higher
Reducing emissions is an enormous, complex challenge; technology development will play a central role t E DW IW

20. Emissions By Source (2000)
Note: land use means deforestation and the like.
Land use and agriculture are major contributors: there are large portions of the emissions spectrum that are unregulated and need work!
Source: Stern Review, from data drawn from World Resources Institute Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) on-line database version 3.0

21. Technologies and Policies
There are 4 aspects of energy technologies that make them different:
1) Scale:
-Large infrastructure, amounts of material, and numbers of units (more cars will be built in the next 20 years than were built in the whole 20th century). -Requires large capital and leverage of existing infrastructure.
-This is one reason way large companies should be involved in the innovation chain early on.
2) Ubiquity of energy:
-There are many players with sometimes divergent interests (consumers, suppliers, governments, NGOs, etc…)
3) Longevity:
-Lifetimes of large equipment and/or interoperability imply slow changes (e.g. BP can’t just change its fuel because it must work with older cars too)
4) Incumbency:
-New energy technologies must compete in cost.
-They may not provide any qualitatively new service to the end user

22. Energy Technologies: Examples
Primary Energy Sources:
Light Crude
Heavy Oil
Tar Sands
Wet gas
CBM
Tight gas
Nuclear
Coal
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
Geothermal
Extraction & Conversion Technologies:
Exploration
Deeper water
Arctic
LNG
Refining
Differentiated fuels
Advantaged chemicals
Gasification
Syngas conversion
Power generation
Photovoltaics
Bio-enzyimatics
H2 production & distribution
CO2 capture & storage
End Use Technologies:
ICEs
Adv. Batteries
Hybridisation
Fuel cells
Hydrogen storage
Gas turbines
Building efficiency
Urban infrastructure
Systems design
Other efficiency technologies
Appliances
Retail technologies
There are no “silver bullets”
But some have a larger calibre than others !
We have about years to deal with these problems so we have to find those technologies which will have the biggest impact at the lowest cost

23. How Do We Assess Energy Technologies?
Current technology status and plausible technical headroom: wind mills have been around for millennia, and there will be incremental improvements, but compare to other improvements in biological technologies
Budgets:
Economic (cost relative to other options)
Energy (output how many times greater than input)
Emissions (pollution and CO2; operations and capital)
Materiality (at least 1TW = 5% of 2050 BAU energy demand: technology has to scale)
Other costs - reliability, intermittency etc.
Social and political acceptability
we also must know what problem we are trying to solve!

24. Problems to Solve There are 2 problems that technology plays into
1) Concern over future availability/cost of oil and gas
2) Concern relating to threat of climate change
It’s really hard to beat liquid hydrocarbons
Gasoline has a lot more energy per unit mass than liquid H2 or compressed gas
With small weight and small space, liquid hydrocarbons are likely to stay around for a while
For liquid hydrocarbons, the real issue is where you get your carbon from

25. So Where Does the U.S. Get Its Carbon From?
Fuel
Fossil
Agriculture
Biomass
1000
Annual US Carbon (Mt C)
15% of Transportation Fuels

26. Where Does the World Get Its Electricity From? (2004)
Source: IEA WEO 2006

27. Electricity Cost vs. CO2 Cost
Solar PV
~$250
$0.35/gal or $0.09/litre

28. Efficiency vs. Conservation
Efficiency and conservation are NOT the same thing
Ex 1) when steam engines became more efficient, the amount of coal used did not decrease, but actually increased because people used it in more and different ways
Ex 2) supply limited situations: right now there is not enough electricity in china to meet the demand for air conditioning. If we make air conditioners more efficient we will keep more Chinese cool, but will not reduce the demand for energy because it is a supply limited situation
The surest way to induce conservation is to either increase the price or to enact some sort of policy. But either is politically difficult for a government to do and remain in power

29. Likely 30 Year Energy Future
Hydrocarbons will continue to dominate transportation (high energy density)
-conventional crude/heavy oils/CTL ensure continuity of supply at reasonable cost
Vehicle efficiency can be at least doubled (hybrids, plug in hybrids, HCCI, diesel)
In the power sector coal (security) and gas (cleanliness) will continue to dominate heat and power
-nuclear energy (security,CO2) will be a fixed, if not growing, fraction of the mix
-renewables will find some application but will remain a small fraction of the total
-advanced solar a wildcard
Demand reduction will happen where economically effective or via policy
CO2 emissions (and concentrations) continue to rise absent dramatic global action

30. Necessary Steps for the Technology
We need technically informed, coherent, and stable government policies
-educated decision makers and an educated public
For short/mid term technologies, we should avoid winners/losers
-a level playing field for all applicable technologies
-emissions trading
For long term technologies, we need support for pre-competitive research like fission, PV, biofuels, etc…
Business needs reasonable expectation of carbon price
Universities/labs must recognize and act on importance of energy research (technology and policy)
Need business to get involved in this research in the next several decades since business like it or not is the way to get things done

31. Acknowledgements
2008 Regent’s Lecture: Steve Koonin “Energy Trends and Technologies”
Georgia Tech Distinguished Lecture: Steve Koonin “Energy Trends and Technologies for the Coming Decades”