1. Lovro Kalin (thanks to Tomislava Hojsak, Tanja Renko)
Verification of warnings at the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia (DHMZ)
Lovro Kalin
(thanks to Tomislava Hojsak, Tanja Renko)

2. Verification of warnings
increasing importance in NMSs (major role?)
public
civil protection,
MeteoAlarm (high/low 2mT, heavy rain, thunderstorms, winds, fog, icing, flash floods)
heat waves, cold waves
forest fires...

3. Verification of warnings
warnings verification – relatively new and complex
nonhomogenous data (forecasts)
lot of noise (contaminated by non-meteorological predictors)
spurious methods, scoring...
thresholds, impact, cost-loss...?

4. Verification of warnings
warnings verification results – contingency tables

5. warnings - MeteoAlarm 8 regions (represented by major cities)
high/low 2mT, heavy rain, thunderstorms, winds, fog, icing, flash floods (Hydrology division)
2 days in advance (plan to 4 days)
very good public reception (MeteoAlarm=DHMZ?)

6. warnings - MeteoAlarm

7. warnings - MeteoAlarm

8. warnings – heat waves in cooperation with Ministry of health
based on Tmin and Tmax (4 days in advance)
Green, Yellow, Orange and Red
very good public response
system oversensitive (thresholds too narrow)

9. heat waves

10. warnings – forest fires
Fire Weather Index not sufficient – too many ‘very high’ classes
special warnings issued internally to Fire Headquarter
based on additional criteria (passage of ‘dry’ front, high Haines index, TKE etc.)
this season – cca 15 warnings
still not clear how to use it

11. warnings – forest fires
Comparison of number of forecasted and observed cases for each danger class

12. special fire danger warnings
due to hot and dry seasons – FWI always high
need for additional info (warnings for exceptionally high danger are introduced)
Based on:
Haines index
passage of „dry” cold front
TKE

13. warnings – forest fires

14. Final Warnings developing area, new products introduced
good reception by the public and customers
still, lot of improvement needed
criteria (impact)
verification (methods, data)