1. Global and EU tobacco market developments
Technical Assistance for Development of a Strategy for Alignment with
Common Market Organisation (CMO) Requirements
TR2014/AG/10-A1-01/001
This Project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey
Global and EU tobacco market developments
Miroslav Božić
Ankara, 10th May, 2018

2. Global and EU tobacco market developments: topics for discussion
Global production of tobacco and markets
International trade of tobacco and products
EU tobacco production and future developments

3. Characteristics of world tobacco production
Since 2000 stable area of tobacco production (around 4 million hectares globally), but slightly rising yields and production
Highly concentrated tobacco production – top 3 producers in 2016 produced 2/3 of total world tobacco production (China, India, Brazil)
EU is the 6th biggest world producer with 2.8% of world production
Very concentrated tobacco processing – more than 80% of the global market in cigarettes controlled by 5 companies

4. World tobacco production 1961 - 2016 (FAO)
Declining tobacco area since 1997/98…

5. Main tobacco producers in the world (FAO, 2016)
China biggest increase & EU bigggest decline 1
China 11
Argentina
93.671 2
India 12
Mozambique
92.995 3
Brazil 13
Bangladesh
87.628 4
United States of America 14
Malawi
84.962 5
Indonesia 15
People's Republic of Korea
82.727 6 EU 16
Turkey
70.000 7
Zimbabwe 17
Lao People's Dem. Republic
66.800 8
Zambia 18
Thailand
60.826 9
Pakistan 19
Philippines
56.457 10
Tanzania 20
Uganda
31.476
Only Italy would be in top 20 in the world!

6. Share of the most important tobacco producers in the world
Tobacco is grown in 124 countries.
China produces ~43% of the world’s tobacco
and has posted a 200% increase in production in the last 30 years! Turkey’s share: 1,1%
Source: FAO

7. Global tobacco production by type
Tobacco is extremely robust plant, able to grow in various climates and soils; flu-cured nearly 73% of total

8. Main tobacco exporting countries: average values & prices
Cijene turskog su za 28% veće od svjetskog prosjeka: 7,3 vs 5,7 $/kg
Source: Own analysis, UN database

9. Global trade in tobacco sector, mil. $ average 2013 – 2016 (incl
Global trade in tobacco sector, mil. $ average 2013 – 2016 (incl. products)
TOP 15 IMPORTERS
Total world
44.812 1
Japan
3.960 2
Italy
2.405 3
Germany
2.385 4
France
2.254 5
USA
2.154 6
China
1.786 7
Spain
1.668 8
Belgium
1.582 9
Netherlands
1.417 10
United Arab Emirates
1.319 11
Russian Federation
1.205 12
SAudi Arabia
1.136 13
Hong Kong
923 14
Singapore
828 15
Poland
743
TOP 15 EXPORTERS
Total world
42.938 1
Germany
4.966 2
Netherlands
3.165 3
Brasil
2.521 4
Poland
2.306 5
United Arab Emirates
2.105 6
USA
2.023 7
Belgium
1.477 8
China
1.334 9
Hong Kong
1.144 10
Singapore
1.074 11
India
997 12
Indonesia
987 13
Turkey
975 14
Zimbabwe
892 15
Romania
889
Source: Own analysis, UN database

10. Top 20 volume and value cigarette markets in 2016
Top cigarette volume markets in 2016 (bns of sticks): T. no. 5
Top cigarette value markets in 2016 ($mns): Turkey no. 10
Source: Euromonitor, 2017

11. Market leaders in cigarette production: Cigarettes are still the industry’s ‘bread and butter’
source:

12. Cigarette consumption (no. of cigarettes per person per year, 2016)
Turkey: around 12 mil. male smokers (11th in the world) & 4 mil. female (13th in world); China: 288 mil. male and only 14 mil. female!

13. North America and West Europe radically loosing market shares …
% of global cigarette volume (2002 vs. 2016)
% of global cigarette value (2002 vs. 2016)

14. Production of tobacco in EU: general overview
12 MS produce tobacco
Italy, Bulgaria, Greece, Spain and Poland main producers with 85% of total EU tobacco production
Varieties grown (2014):
Virginia („flue-cured”): 53%
Burley („light-air-cured”): 15%
oriental („sun-cured”): 29%
other: 3%
Sharp reduction in production after 2005 (cancellation of premia system); today’s production less than 45% of that in 2003 although EU has 13 more Member States

15. EU tobacco production 2000 - 2016
Area, production but also yields are declining

16. Tobacco production in the EU by Member States, ha in 2014
Without subsidies → tobacco production is dissapearing in the EU !

17. Market developments and future prospects for tobacco
Like no other agricultural sector, tobacco production and processing is influenced by health concerns
In EU and globally (WHO) strong policies are promoted to reduce tobacco consumption
WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control entered into force in 2005 and contains guidelines for measures such as tobacco taxation, smoke-free policies, packaging and labelling provisions, marketing bans; the Convention is ratified by 181 Parties (Turkey ratified in 2004)
Consumption is declining in developed, but rising in developing countries or countries with weaker tobacco control; in those countries consumption is likely to further rise due to income and population increases
Globally smokers are looking for tobacco products that are less harmful and altering their consumption, often to non-combustible products that deliver nicotine, including e-cigs, heat-not-burn (HNB) products, moist snuff/snus, and other nicotine containing products

18. This publication has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union
The contents of this publication is the sole responsibility of NIRAS IC Sp. z o.o. and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union