1. 2012 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation
Nov. 7, 2012
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
96.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
122.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,358
10,706
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
988
Imports 14 8 28 75
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,514
11,769
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,793
4,562
4,150
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,021
5,000
4,500
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,421
1,350
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,835
1,543
1,150
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,526
11,150
Ending Stocks
619
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.22
7.80
These are the latest numbers from USDA. Record production and demand is gone and was replaced by record prices. All sectors of demand took major cuts. Ending stocks are projected to be at pipeline levels.
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.9
37.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,094
2,860
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
169
Imports 13 15 14 16 20
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,050
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,540
Seed & Residual
106
110
130 92
115
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,360
1,265
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,155
2,920
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.50
15.25
For soybeans, a tight market continues to get tighter. USDA ratcheted down demand for the new crop to hold 2012/13 ending stocks at 115 million bushels. As with corn, all sectors of demand took a big cut.
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
63.2
59.2
53.6
54.4
55.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.9
44.5
46.3
43.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,499
2,218
2,207
1,999
2,269
Beg. Stocks
306
657
976
862
743
Imports
127
119 97
112
130
Total Supply
2,932
2,993
3,279
2,974
3,142
Food
927
919
926
941
950
Seed 78 69 71 76 73
Feed & Residual
255
150
132
164
315
Exports
1,015
879
1,289
1,050
1,150
Total Use
2,275
2,018
2,417
2,231
2,488
Ending Stocks
654
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.78
4.87
5.70
7.24
8.10
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. Price Ratios Since May 1

6. Projected Corn Yields
These are based on conditions around Sept. 1.

7. Objective Corn Yield Data
USDA crop adjusters found grain weights well below those for the last 8 years.
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Projected Soybean Yields
These are based on conditions around Sept. 1.

9. Objective Soybean Yield Data
USDA crop adjusters found pod numbers well below those for the last 8 years.
Source: USDA-NASS

10. Winter Wheat Production
Source: USDA-NASS

11. Other Spring Wheat Production
Source: USDA-NASS

12. Durum Wheat Production
Source: USDA-NASS

13. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB
Global corn production took a hit last month, with Canada and Europe seeing reductions in potential corn production.
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. World Soybean Production
Soybean prices have spurred on increased soybean plantings worldwide. South America will lead the charge.
Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14

15. World Wheat Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 15 15

16. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Projected hog margins are well south of breakeven.
Source: ISU Extension

17. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Higher feed costs have led to lower meat production projections.
Source: USDA-WAOB 17 17

18. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Wheat Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

21. Corn Grind for Ethanol
Negative margins at some ethanol plants have dragged down production.

22. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
7.6 bil. gal.
But the industry still faces blend wall issues as fuel consumption has dropped with the economy and the E-10 market is basically full.
7.4 bil. gal.
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

23. Current Corn Futures
6.87
5.99
5.63
Source: CME Group, 11/6/2012

24. Current Soybean Futures
14.11
12.81
12.38
Source: CME Group, 11/6/2012

25. Current Wheat Futures
8.19
8.56
Source: KCBOT, 11/6/2012

26. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS
We brought back a lot of acres in Can we hold them in 2013?
Source: USDA-NASS

27. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011
Weather was great for planting in 2012 (just not for producing). To hold acreage we will need great planting weather again.
Top: Planted in 2012
Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

29. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres
Cotton will likely give up acreage again. But with crop prices strong across the board, the acreage battle could be interesting in 2013.
Source: USDA-NASS

30. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Soil moisture issues
Biofuel and export strength
Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing
2012/13
USDA
Futures
(11/6/12)
2013/14
Corn
$7.80
$6.87
$5.99
Soybeans
$15.25
$14.11
$12.81
Wheat
$8.10
$8.19
$8.56

31. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: