1. Agriculture in the Netherlands Baseline projection 2020
Martha M. van Eerdt
RIVM Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
October 8, 2003 Brussels

2. Projection objectives
Make most likely projection of developments in livestock numbers and fertilising regime until 2020
Extra
Include implemented and adopted measures
Pay ample attention to sensitivity of results to uncertain developments
Martha M. van Eerdt
Baseline projection 2020

3. Policy instruments and economic development
EU Nitrate Directive and national policies on manure
EU policy on milk quota
EU policy on animal welfare
Economic development
Not included:
recent CAP reform (milk quota, decoupling)
extension of EU-15
post Kyoto policies
Martha M. van Eerdt
Baseline projection 2020

4. Choice of key assumptions
Base year: 2000
Nitrogen manure standards:
acceptable losses from mineral accounting system (MINAS)
grassland: 20 kg P2O5 and (180)140 kg N per hectare on (less) vulnerable soils
arable land: 25 kg P2O5 and (100) 60 kg N per hectare on (less) vulnerable soils
manure transfer contract system
grassland: 250 kg N per hectare
arable land: 170 kg N per hectare
Willingness of arable farmers to accept manure
Export and manure treatment: 25 Kton N
Increase milk quota: 0,6% after 2010
Increase milk productivity: 1,8% per year until 2010, thereafter1,3% per year
Martha M. van Eerdt
Baseline projection 2020

5. Development livestock numbers
Martha M. van Eerdt
Baseline projection 2020

6. Projection of the fertilising regime
Martha M. van Eerdt
Baseline projection 2020

7. Ammonia emission from agriculture
Martha M. van Eerdt
Baseline projection 2020

8. Uncertainties in animal numbers
High baseline projection
dairy cattle +7%
pigs and poultry + 16%
Low baseline projection
dairy cattle - 7%
pigs - 20%
poultry - 27%
Martha M. van Eerdt
Baseline projection 2020

9. Manure policy reduces animal numbers and amount of fertiliser used
Conclusions
Manure policy reduces animal numbers and amount of fertiliser used
Uncertainties due to policy changes are greater than uncertainties due to economic developments
Include reviews in projections
Martha M. van Eerdt
Baseline projection 2020