1. If everyone followed the Low-Risk Drinking Guidelines …
If everyone in Canada followed the Low-Risk Alcohol Drinking Guidelines and light drinkers did not increase consumption, then
Alcohol consumption would decrease by at least 50%
Alcohol-related deaths would decrease by at least 4,600 per year
The LRDG Expert Advisory Panel provided these estimates which are based on the proportion of alcohol consumption in Canada that is in excess of low-risk drinking guidelines calculated from survey data and from an analysis of the number of Canadian deaths currently associated with drinking above the guidelines.
The Expert Advisory Panel states in Alcohol and health in Canada: A summary of evidence and guidelines for low risk drinking that
“On the basis of published estimates of numbers of deaths caused by drinking above low-risk drinking guidelines (Stockwell et al, 2007), compliance with these Guidelines would reduce the annual numbers of alcohol caused deaths in Canada by approximately 4,600. On the basis of an analysis of Canadian survey data (Stockwell et al, 2009), it is estimated that if everyone currently drinking above these Guidelines reduced their consumption and all others maintained their current drinking patterns, overall consumption of alcohol in Canada would be reduced by at least 50 percent. Alternatively, if all drinkers drank to the maximum limits outlined by these Guidelines, per capita alcohol consumption would actually rise by about 10 percent.
“While neither of these extreme scenarios is likely, the Guidelines are meant to reduce the proportion of drinkers who consume in excess. To this end, it should be acknowledged that publication of these Guidelines will reduce population levels of serious alcohol-related harm only if accompanied by the other comprehensive range of strategies outlined in the National Alcohol Strategy document, Towards a Culture of Moderation (NASAC, 2007). It is nonetheless hoped that the Guidelines will prove positive and constructive.” (p. 45)