1. Cases, Challenges, Solutions
VOLATILITY IN ATM
Cases, Challenges, Solutions
Alexander Hanslik
Austro Control
Madrid, March 6th, 2018

2. What‘s the problem?
Madrid, March 6th, 2018

3. Traffic development is extremely volatile
ACC Level
Sector Level (B5-South)
Day
Month
Day
Weekday
NM Forecast
12/2016
Madrid, March 6th, 2018

4. types of reasons for traffic variation
Industry related
ATM system capacity related
Operations related
Competitive dynamics
Stimulation of demand, regional booms and declines
Airlines planning cycles become shorter
Systemic regional capacity shortages
Ad hoc Regional capacity shortages
Climate change enhances weather impact
Airlines file suboptimal routes
Airlines do not always fly as they file/flight plan adherence
MIL activity
Disruptive events such as …
Geopolitical impacts (Ukraine, Syria, Qatar, … , fuel price, … )
„SARS“ and the like
Eyjafjallajökull
Industrial action …
Madrid, March 6th, 2018

5. is traffic variation predictable? – long term view
7-year STATFOR Forecast vs (FIR)
RP2-Forecast vs. 2017
for FAB CE (FIR)
Madrid, March 6th, 2018

6. is traffic variation predictable? – short term view
ACC / Daily Forecast
We must live with volatility
Madrid, March 6th, 2018

7. Operational capacity measures - flexbility
System
Personnel
Airspace Design/Procedure/
Sectorization
Long-term
Multi Sector Ratings
Buffer Planning
Short-term
Ad-hoc Overtime
Shift Changes
Flexible Position Planning
Long-term
COOPANS/State-of-the-Art System
Short-term
Fixed
Long-term
FRA (SECSI)
Short-term
LOA Amendments
STAM (Minimizing Regulations)
Flexible Sector Opening
Madrid, March 6th, 2018

8. For Instance – Flexible sector planning
Flexibility
Madrid, March 6th, 2018

9. Regulation: we need flexibility
Rigidity – No Compromise
Safety
(SMS Maturity)
Flexibility
Environment
(Horizontal Flight Efficiency)
Capacity
(Delay per Flight)
Cost
(Real Unit Cost)
Targets need to be managed more dynamically
Madrid, March 6th, 2018

10. 28/02/2019

11. WXR pictures and Flight-Tracks

12. FAB CE study: how airlines actually fly
Madrid, March 6th, 2018