1. Market Forces Affecting Distillers Grains
20th Annual Distillers Grains Symposium
St. Louis, Missouri
May 18, 2016
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.0
93.6
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.4
168.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,601
14,430
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
1,803
Imports
160 36 32 55 40
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,387
16,273
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,324
5,250
5,550
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,200
5,300
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,360
1,370
Exports
730
1,920
1,864
1,725
1,900
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,585
14,120
Ending Stocks
2,153
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.60
3.35
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. Corn Prospective Plantings
Top: 2016 Plantings
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

4. Change in Planted Area
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Corn Planting Progress
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

9. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

10. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME, as of 5/16/16

11. Corn Grind for Ethanol

12. Ethanol Stocks

13. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

14. U.S. DDG Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Production
(mil. metric tons)
35.9
39.5
40.1
40.5
40.9
Imports
0.4
0.5
Total Supply
36.3
40.0
Domestic
28.1
28.0
29.0
26.5
Exports
8.2
12.0
11.5
14.3
Total Use
Price
($ per ton)
257
205
154
133
Source: USDA-ERS 14 14

15. DDG Exports
Source: USDA

16. DDG Exports to China
Source: USDA

17. Current Corn Futures
3.92
3.78
3.71
Source: CME Group, 5/16/2016

18. 2016/17 Crop Margins

19. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

20. ENSO Cycle
Source: NOAA-CPC

21. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: