1. You know what they say about assuming...
Assumptions
You know what they say about assuming...
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2. Be more confident in your strategy.
The Goal
Be more confident in your strategy.
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3. Key Points What Is An Assumption? Types of Assumptions How To Test?
Certainty
Example
What not to do
Your next steps
Wrap up
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4. Grab your worksheet and follow along.
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5. 100% True 100% False What Is An Assumption? Assumptions
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6. Types of Assumptions Business Idea Sales Costs Competition
It Is An Original Idea
Offering Is Needed
Business Idea
People Will Buy It
Projected Sales Are Accurate
Sales
Total Costs Were Captured
Costs Will Remain Constant
Costs
There Is No Competition
Competition Won’t Change
Competition
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7. How To Test Your Assumptions
Secondary Research
Primary Research
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8. How Sure Are You?
100% 0%
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9. How To Protect Yourself?
Is there any action you could take that will help you become more confident?
Can you come up with a way to keep checking the environment?
Could you create a contract with a supplier to prevent your costs from increasing for the next 2 years?
Could you franchise out your own idea, to entice new competitors to join you?
Do you have enough cash flow in case sales are below your projections?
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10. Example
Cindy has developed a line of organic facial products that she wishes to launch. She hasn’t told that many people about it as she is worried that others will steal the idea. She turns to the Assumptions model to help see if there are things that she has overlooked.
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11. Practice: Pie Shop
Imagine you are the owner of new pie shop called The Upper Crust. Test your assumptions. What should you worry about? How can you protect yourself?
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12. Practice: Pie Shop Common Assumptions How to Test? How Sure Are You?
How to Protect Yourself?
Business Idea
It is an original idea
Search for pie shops
75%
The offering is needed
Ask friends
Studies on pie sales
60%
Sales
People will buy it
Ask people
30%
Sell pie at a festival
Projected sales are accurate
See how other pie shops have done
Costs
Total costs were captured
See books of another restaurant
50%
Get a mentor
Costs will remain constant
Investigate where inflation has increased
90%
Competition
There is no competition
Research online
40%
Visit all the cafes shops
Competition won’t change
Online research is that they import baking
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13. Top Mistakes To Avoid Surrounding yourself with ‘yes’ men
Not telling anyone about your business
Thinking competition won’t change
Thinking you don’t have competition
Reliant on a high-sales forecast
Assuming sales on verbal confirmations
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14. Now What? Know your own risk tolerance
Re-test assumptions that are below your risk tolerance
Tweak the idea or do more research
Become comfortable
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15. Key Points What Is An Assumption? Types of Assumptions How To Test?
Certainty
Example
What not to do
Your next steps
Wrap up
© 2018

16. Be more confident in your strategy.
The Goal
Be more confident in your strategy.
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17. Double check all assumptions with someone outside of your business.
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